Business airfares from Europe will increase by 3% next year, according to new research released today. The report, the 2010 Industry Forecast by travel management company BCD Travel, said that airlines will succeed in pushing up fares due to “a small revival in passenger numbers [while] continuing capacity reduction by airlines will bring supply and demand into closer alignment”.

The report said: “During 2009, airlines have not generally reduced their published fares. Instead, they have kept lower fare classes open much nearer to the point of departure, which has pushed down the average fare. As a result, load factors have been reasonable even though yields have been poor.

“In the year ahead, demand will start to rise, gathering momentum in the second half. Since many carriers have still more capacity cuts planned, load factors are likely to improve further and this should give airlines the confidence to start moving price upwards. Improving demand will also allow carriers to reduce the availability of the lowest priced tickets, which will increase the average price paid.”

The travel management company also said that it would take a long time for the level of business travel to recover to pre-recession levels. “In 2009, travel volumes were down 15 to 20%," the company said. "Volumes should stabilize towards the end of 2009 and then bookings are expected to start moving gently upward in the second half of 2010, gathering more momentum in 2011.”

BCD Travel said it believes there have been a number of permanent changes in the way in which companies approach business travel, inspired by the recession. These include the increased use of virtual meeting technology and improved discipline related to travel policy restrictions, such as the class in which travellers are allow to fly.

The company added: “Travellers have also become more self-disciplined about only attempting to book trips which are genuinely worthwhile. Furthermore, there will be more disincentives to travel if, as seems likely, some policy downgrades are maintained, and airport experiences continue to be largely disagreeable.”