Wales v New Zealand

Tears always flow when these great nations meet. For Wales the tears have been shed only in woe since 1953. The possibility of seeing Cardiff draped in joyous red makes this the main match of the autumn series first round.

Yet, much as I hate to be the harbinger of bad news, the chances are not great; possible yes, but probable? New Zealand are not anywhere near their best, but Wales have a few injuries that promise to gravely weaken them.

Much has been made of the absence of Mike Phillips; I am not sure a Welsh team at full tilt would miss him quite as much as assumed. He is undoubtedly the strongest scrum half in this hemisphere but compared to the genuine greats of modern times, such as Fourie du Preez, he can be dreadfully slow with his service.

Dwayne Peel has strengths that suit the Welsh attacking game, but he is ineligible which leaves Gareth Cooper with the responsibility to feed Stephen Jones, the Lions fly half. Cooper has experience but whether he has the speed with which to repel the pressure of the All Blacks is another matter.

Stranger things than Cooper having the game of his life have happened, but the odds have to be on New Zealand cutting the umbilical of the Welsh attacking game.

The other and more serious blow to Welsh hopes is the long-term one which keeps Adam Jones on the sidelines. Paul James, his fellow Osprey has the walloping great burden of handling the strong New Zealand scrum. In Osprey colours he has never lacked for guts but as Leicester illustrated in the second half of the recent Heineken Cup pool game, he is vulnerable to an aggressive scrum. There have been plenty of rude names aimed at New Zealand’s lineouts through the Tri Nations summer, but there is no question about the solidity of the scrum. If Wales cannot hold here, anarchy could break loose in the shape of an All Black back line that has too much talent to misfire much longer.

Dan Carter is easing his way back to form and kicking with metronomic precision in the process. Wales cannot afford to stop New Zealand’s offence with any illegalities in their own half. Carter will punish them.

So much for checking the All Blacks. Wales will probably have to find at least a couple of tries to add to Jones’s boot. Shane Williams and Leigh Halfpenny are dangerous opponents, but neither is at their best and Wales should beware of Carter cross kicking to Corey Jane, the high-jumping and in-form full back converted to wing.

An inspired Jamie Roberts would provoke consternation behind the Kiwi defensive line. A repeat of his performances in South Africa is the minimum, but is he ready to produce that quality of performance without Brian O’ Driscoll alongside him? If the answer is in the negative, Wales are unlikely to break that 56-year losing run.

The main man: Martyn Williams

He has only just made a return from injury which is perhaps just as well. The legs are not quite as sprightly as once they were, but the brain is quick as ever. Fresh limbs and fast minds are requisite for Wales. Here is the task for Williams: go and stop Richie McCaw dominating the breakdown and when you have managed that, knock Carter out of his stride. These are New Zealand’s two greats; it will take a great performance from Williams to turn the tide. Does greatness beckon or will he be another in the long line of Welshmen never to beat the All Blacks?