Julian Muscat, Commentary
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It would be hard to script a more fitting climax to a season in which Sea The Stars portrayed Flat racing in all its finery. With the great horse preparing for stud duties, a genuine heir to his throne revealed himself at Doncaster on Saturday.
St Nicholas Abbey's blitzkrieg in the Racing Post Trophy made the perfect riposte to those who maintain that Flat racing lacks narrative. No sooner does one turf giant step aside than a young aspirant shapes to take his place. It is all about succession. The king is dead; long live the king.
By his spark of brilliance, St Nicholas Abbey lit a bonfire that will burn all winter. Is he for real? Will he double up in the 2,000 Guineas and Derby? Can he match the blazing hoofprints of Sea The Stars just 12 months after the exploits of a horse advanced by many as the best they have seen?
Iconic racehorses can arrive like London buses. One year after Nijinsky enthralled the nation in 1970 came a pair of equine celebrities in Mill Reef and Brigadier Gerard. In human terms St Nicholas Abbey is but a precocious teenager. To join the club he must emerge from the winter recess a stronger, more mature animal. Otherwise he becomes one more sporting talent who simply failed to graduate.
That alone is a huge divide to bridge. The verve of St Nicholas Abbey's Doncaster triumph was matched last year by Crowded House, who has since become anonymous. Yet the omens look good - and for this, a basic grasp of horses beyond vehicles for betting is required. It is what makes Flat racing beguiling.
The thinking goes as follows. St Nicholas Abbey is by a stallion, Montjeu, whose sons invariably improve between the age of two and three. Motivator, the winner of the Racing Post Trophy five years ago who progressed to win the 2005 Derby, was a typical Montjeu model. So too was Authorized, who completed the same double two years later.
Against that, Montjeu has never bestowed a two-year-old with the blistering speed displayed by St Nicholas Abbey on Saturday. If he makes just normal improvement over the winter, St Nicholas Abbey could be a veritable monster. Which gives rise to the question: has nature played a dirty trick by contriving a horse that is simply too good to be true?
We can but wait and see. In the meantime, speculation centres on whether St Nicholas Abbey will take his chance in the 2,000 Guineas ahead of the Derby. Here again, it's instructive to know a little more about the game than the numbers on horses' backs.
One slant on the conundrum is that Ballydoyle, where St Nicholas Abbey is trained by Aidan O'Brien, also houses the first, second and fourth horses home in the Dewhurst Stakes. O'Brien thus holds the whip hand but his role is to make attractive stallions from the horses in his care.
Among them are Fencing Master and Steinbeck, respectively second and fourth in the Dewhurst. Perhaps more significantly, both are by promising young stallions, Oratorio and Foostepsinthesand, whose fortunes would be immeasurably boosted by siring a 2,000 Guineas winner.
In this way might Ballydoyle kill two birds with one stone. Come April, if the homework of Fencing Master and Steinbeck matches that of St Nicholas Abbey, the latter may be kept back for the Derby - which would almost certainly prove a trip too far for his two stablemates.
Again, we can but wait to see what transpires. These intriguing sub-plots are what make Flat racing appear impenetrable to the outsider. For those who persist, however, the rewards are ample. In the immediate wake of Sea The Stars, the percentage call is that connections will give St Nicholas Abbey his head.
And finally, a good-natured riposte to the jumping fraternity who already banter that St Nicholas Abbey would make an ideal hurdling type. He probably would, but that's to forget another son of Montjeu presently doing those rounds. Come the Champion Hurdle in March, Hurricane Fly will show exactly what he is made of.
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