Are you a talented athlete? To give an accurate response, forget your ball skills and answer the following: 1) Were you born between September and December? 2) Do you have siblings? 3) Do you come from a small town or village? If you can answer yes to all the above, then you might have talent.

We can take this farther. Of your siblings, are there elder brothers? And your village — is its population under 1,999? If yes and yes, then even better, because you are fitting very closely to what is the latest profile of a talented British athlete.

Preposterous as it may sound, the science of sport continues to throw up evidence that challenges ingrained beliefs, such as the idea that talent is innate or that your star player is a complete natural.

You could have been forgiven for believing that Darren Gough was naturally blessed, but once you know that he was a September baby, had two siblings and was from the Yorkshire village of Monk Bretton, you might consider that it was his environment rather than innate gifts that made him.

When UK Sport launched the search this week for new Olympic medal winners — Talent 2016 — the facts had been fully digested. From previous campaigns, when members of the public were asked to have their talent assessed, some astonishing statistics had arisen: compared with non-successful applicants, those who were successful were 13 times more likely to come from a small village. Likewise, those perceived to possess talent were three times more likely to have a brother than those who did not.

There is, of course, a limit to this. If you are an August-born only child from London then you will be given a fair crack at Talent 2016. But the accepted “talented athlete” profile plays a part. “If we are unsure about you and you have it, then we are more likely to give you a chance,” Natalie Dunman, the Talent ID scientist leading the campaign, said. In other words, the criteria for talent will not rule you out, but they might rule you in.

This use of science to profile talent is by no means new. Talent ID as a sports science was first studied in the old East Germany and rather than dismiss it as an Iron Curtain evil, UK Sport has been using Arne Güllich, a former East German and now a world expert in sports science, to show us where to look.

The most sophisticated sports nations are all looking harder and harder. Transatlantic studies, for instance, have shown that the first-born is more likely to suffer from stress or pressure in high-level sport than latter-born siblings.

From Australia, a study of aggression in Australian Rules players reveals that the first-born and last-born are more likely to be aggressive than middle-order siblings. And in his recent book, The Talent Code: Greatness Isn’t Born, It’s Grown, Daniel Coyle traces the lineage of world and Olympic champion sprinters and finds an astonishing majority are low in the sibling order. In other words, they have spent their childhood trying to keep up.

Study after study corroborates the influence of home-town size. Analysis of the post-Björn Borg boom years in Swedish tennis showed that elite players mainly came from rural areas.

Dunman explains that this is not crazy statistics and a random message. “It is not the town size itself but the environment it creates,” she said. “In a smaller town you might have a better coaching situation, you might play more with adults or older children. It’s interesting that where the geography is different, the patterns are the same.”

Likewise, birth date is by no means a random message. A UK study of elite school-age athletes across a number of sports in 2006 showed that 50 per cent were born between September and December compared with 10 per cent for those born in the last quarter of the academic year.

The problem is not that August babies are ungifted. It is that the advantage of being born at the start of the academic year, which should gradually fade, is often perpetuated. The oldest and strongest children are fast-tracked and made stronger, with the younger and weaker facing an uphill struggle to catch up.

The message of the 2006 survey was so strong that an impressive pressure group, comprising the likes of Steve Cram, Gavin Hastings and Guin Batten, was formed to campaign for change to be made to existing competitive structures.

Only a very tiny minority ever make it in elite sport, which is why Dunman found it so interesting that an extraordinary richness of talent came from the Wrexham area. Three girls on her elite schemes come from near the Welsh town, population about 42,000: Vicky Thornley and Lucy Ryvar, who are rowers, and Laura Deas, who is a skeleton slider.

Should we all move to Wrexham? Not if we study the elite profile shared by the Wrexham three. They all have siblings, two of the three have brothers, and two of the three used to ride horses competitively. Horses require time, commitment and a routine, ideal preparation for elite sport and a big tick from Dunman.

And closer study shows they do not come exactly from Wrexham, but from villages outside. Deas went to school in Llanfynydd, population 700; Thornley in Holt, population 1,800; and Ryvar in Rossett, population 3,400. What perfect locations, what an ideal environment, what talent.

• Sign up to Talent 2016 at uksport.gov.uk/talent

Success by numbers

55 Percentage of male finalists at the English Schools Athletics Championships in 2002 who were born between September and December. The percentage for those born between June and August was eight.

97 Percentage of girls who had siblings who were accepted on to a UK Sport Talent ID programme called Girls4Gold. Of those accepted, 74 per cent had at least one brother.

13 Percentage of NHL players who come from cities of populations more than 500,000. Overall percentage of Americans from cities over 500,000 is 52. Percentage of NBA players from big cities: 29. Percentage of MLB players from big cities: 15. Percentage of PGA golfers from big cities: 13.