Roy Hodgson, the Fulham manager, believes that his side will struggle to qualify from Europa League group E if they lose to Roma at the Stadio Olimpico tonight.

He expects Basle, the leaders, to beat CSKA Sofia, whose preparation was disrupted by the suspension on Monday and subsequent reinstatement of nine of their players after late-night drinking sessions. That would leave Roma and Fulham likely to be fighting for second place, with the losing team tonight trailing too far behind to have a realistic chance of making up ground.

“You will need quite a lot of points to get through the group,” he said. “Whoever loses tomorrow night will be a long way behind Basle and their opponents, so nine or ten points may be necessary. If Roma beat us, they will be favourites to go through and we will probably need to win our final game in Basle.”

A win, though, would put Fulham four points ahead of their opponents tonight with two games to play — one of them at home to CSKA on December 3. “If we can qualify, the sooner the better,” he said. “It will be far from easy with teams like Roma and Basle but we are looking forward to the game and the players who are fully fit are looking forward to it, so I don’t have any problems in balancing out the league and Europe.”

Hodgson will be without Damien Duff, Andrew Johnson and Danny Murphy because of injury, but despite Johnson’s continuing groin problem, the team have not been short of goals, Bobby Zamora, Erik Nevland and Clint Dempsey scoring in the 3-1 victory over Liverpool on Saturday.

“The team has responded well and the good thing is we are sharing the goals around, which is positive for a coach, when more than one is capable of goals,” Hodgson said. “Everyone is chipping in. There will be periods when we don’t get so many.”

A former coach of Inter Milan and Udinese, Hodgson is relishing a return to one of Europe’s premier stadiums. “This is one of the games that shows how far we have come,” he said. “A few years ago, a tie between these teams in Europe is not one many would have envisaged.

“The fans are passionate and there have been problems in the past, particularly the Roma derby, but I think the last time it happened involving an English club was much further on, in a higher-profile competition, and I would be surprised [if there is trouble], but it is prudent to be on our guard.

“It’s been a lucky ground for me. The last time I was here we played a game later referred to as the ‘Game of the Year’ in Serie A, in my second spell with Inter [in 1999] — and we won 5-4. I’m not expecting that.”

Roma are not in the best of form. They are fourteenth in Serie A but ended a run of three league defeats with a 2-1 victory at home over Bologna on Sunday, before which the players were jeered by their supporters. The week before, players staying overnight at the club’s Trigoria training complex were awoken by loud explosions, reported to be caused by home-made bombs thrown over the walls. So the atmosphere at the Stadio Olimpico promises to be as explosive as ever.

“It’s not the position [Roma] want to be in, but they’ve had a topsy-turvy season with a change in coach [Luciano Spalletti resigned two months ago],” Hodgson said. “It’s early days and they’ve got plenty of time to change it around and I’ll be surprised if they are not in top six by the end of the season.”

Claudio Ranieri, the Roma and former Chelsea manager, wants his team to be positive. “Of course we are missing the Champions League but that by no means suggests that we don’t consider this competition important,” he said. “We want to go as far as possible, and to go into the game at Inter [on Sunday] with an important result would be good for our spirit.”

Mirko Vucinic, who starred against Bologna, will be partnered in attack by Júlio Baptista, the former Arsenal forward who, ominously, has yet to score in four games this season for Roma.

Roma (4-4-2): Doni — M Casetti, M Andreolli, P Mexès, J A Riise — M Taddei, D Di Rossi, D Pizarro, S Perrotta — J Baptista, M Vucinic.

Fulham (4-4-2): M Schwarzer — J Paintsil, A Hughes, B Hangeland, P Konchesky — C Dempsey, J Greening, D Etuhu, Z Gera — E Nevland, R Zamora.

Referee: K Blom (Netherlands).

Television: Live on ITV4 from 5.30pm (kick-off 6pm).