Graphic: managing expectations

He’s cracking up. The pressure is getting to him. He just can’t take it. A strange whistling sound appears to be coming from The Nonsense-ometer, perched behind a pile of books in the Fink Tank lab. Every time there is another article about Rafael Benítez, his ulcer — or was it his kidney stone? — Robbie Keane, Liverpool and the elusive title, the indicator on the dial tips into the red. And over the past few days the equipment has turned hot and begun emitting an irritating high-pitched noise. Honestly, it has been hard to concentrate.

So let me tell you what the Fink Tank thinks about the goings-on at Anfield. The first thing is that we are not surprised that Liverpool’s title challenge is faltering. We always thought that it would. Our computer model at the beginning of the campaign gave Liverpool a 10 per cent chance of lifting the Barclays Premier League trophy. It rose to about 13 per cent and has fallen back to 7 per cent. In other words (as the graphic shows, too) nothing particularly spectacular has been going on. Only those who overestimated Liverpool’s chances to start with would be surprised at the position now.

In fact, in terms of points, Liverpool have done a bit better than we expected. They are four points ahead of where we thought they would be. These extra points have been won away from home.

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If you want a feel for Liverpool, our ratings have them at 64 per cent as good as the best team in the Premier League (interestingly, still — just — Chelsea). Arsenal are a tiny bit better (at 65 per cent). So there is quite a gap.

Is the gap Benítez’s fault? Dr Henry Stott, Dr Ian Graham and Dr Mark Latham have produced a model where the points a team score are compared with points they should be expected to score, given the size of their wage bill.

Some clubs have often done worse than the wage bill says that they should (Newcastle United), other clubs have often done better (Everton), but Liverpool basically perform as you would expect. Last season they were three points ahead of the wage bill. Nothing special, but certainly not a figure that supports the idea that it is all Benítez’s fault.

What about the players? Liverpool’s best player this season, per minute, has been Steven Gerrard so far. However, the most useful player has been Xabi Alonso. This is because he is almost as good per minute but has been on the field more than Gerrard. Fernando Torres is the third most valuable player per minute, but has been absent a great deal.

Has Benítez been mad to exclude Keane? Well, the first is that he, er, has not. Keane has been on the pitch for 66 per cent of the time that Liverpool have played this season. But Benítez’s frustration is not hard to understand. Keane has not been as good for Liverpool as he was for Tottenham Hotspur.

Having played 65 per cent of the 2005-06 season, he added nearly 12 points to Spurs compared with the average replacement. In 2006-07, he played 48 per cent and added 17.2 points. In 2007-08, he played 79 per cent and added 10.4 points. This season? He has played 66 per cent, adding 3.3 points.

So you can see Benítez’s point.

Now, it has been suggested that maybe this decline is not Keane’s fault, maybe it is something Benítez does to strikers. Not so. Peter Crouch is about the same at Portsmouth as he was at Liverpool, Craig Bellamy was better at Liverpool than at West Ham United and Djibril Cissé was better at Liverpool than at Sunderland.

So in a nutshell? I don’t accept the Benítez thesis. I think that he is just fine.