Debate: are Aussies there for the taking? | Graphic: 2008 in figures

The ICC polishers are no doubt buffing the sterling silver and gold mace that is given to the leading Test nation in anticipation that it will soon change hands. By winning the second Test in Melbourne yesterday, South Africa not only inflicted a first home series defeat on Australia since West Indies won there in 1993, but also raised the possibility of a 3-0 sweep, with the final Test starting in Sydney on Saturday.

If South Africa win again, they will overtake Australia at the top of the world rankings by a fraction of a point. It would also be the first time Australia had lost every Test in a home series since Arthur Shrewsbury’s England won 2-0 in 1887. It would be wrong, however, to get carried away with talk of their demise. Australia may have lost five Tests in a year for the first time since 1985 but South Africa could easily have been 2-0 down.

The plots of both Tests have twisted and turned and South Africa won the matches because at crucial moments someone seized the initiative. How very Australian. In Perth, South Africa were set a near-record 414 to win, but Graeme Smith and A. B. De Villiers made fourth-innings hundreds. In Melbourne, they were 184 for seven, replying to Australia’s 394, before J. P. Duminy made 166 and Dale Steyn 76 to turn the game. With five wickets in each innings, Steyn restricted South Africa’s target to 183 and they made it for the loss of only Smith, leg-before yesterday for 75.

South Africa, the best team in 2008 by a street, deserve praise, but inevitably most debate will concern Australia’s failings. The faltering Matthew Hayden may be facing his final Test but several talented batsmen can fill his shoes; Phil Jaques and Chris Rogers head the queue and the selectors may call up Phil Hughes, 20, the New South Wales opener, for the return series in South Africa in February.

There will be changes to the bowling attack for the third Test because of injuries to Brett Lee (foot) and Andrew Symonds (knee), while Shane Watson has a stress fracture in his back and Stuart Clark, their most reliable fast bowler, has missed the series with an elbow injury. Doug Bollinger, Ben Hilfenhaus and Andrew McDonald have been summoned on the back of their Sheffield Shield form.

Rebuilding is therefore in progress, but Australia will probably rise again. What their latest downturn offers is the prospect that 2009 could be the most open for years, which is just what Test cricket needs to counter the rise of Twenty20. Here are the tasks facing those who would succeed Australia.

South Africa have a rock-solid top order, field well and have the most threatening fast bowler in Steyn, but they lack a world-class spin bowler and top-quality reserve pacemen. They must win the Sydney Test to become the No 1 side and solidify their position in the return series, although a loss in the series at home would give the mace back to Australia.

India have an inspirational captain in Mahendra Singh Dhoni, a resurgent Sachin Tendulkar and two openers in sublime form. Their pace bowling is better than it has been, too. But how much longer can Rahul Dravid, Tendulkar and V. V. S. Laxman continue? A tour to New Zealand in February should hold few fears. The defence of their World Twenty20 crown in June may be the priority, but the Test series at home to Sri Lanka next winter is just as important.

Sri Lanka have the world’s best spin bowler in Muttiah Muralitharan and a potential successor in Ajantha Mendis, plus world-class batsmen in Kumar Sangakkara and Mahela Jayawardena. They face a busy year, even though the tour to England was cancelled, standing in for India in Pakistan next month before they host Pakistan and New Zealand and play three Tests in India. If the bowlers stay fit, Sri Lanka could be the year’s dark horses.

As for England, Kevin Pietersen’s self-belief, Andrew Strauss’s rediscovered zest for batting and a long list of good fast bowlers are offset by questions over who will bat at No 3, who are the best spinners and whether Andrew Flintoff can stay fit. They should beat West Indies away and home, then all they have to do to become No 1 is reclaim the Ashes and beat South Africa away at the end of the year. Not too much to ask, surely.