Predicting what will happen in US politics is often a fool’s errand. Presidential fortunes can change with brutal speed and conventional wisdom is frequently turned on its head. Just ask George Bush Sr. In February 1991, at the end of the Gulf War, he had an approval rating of 87 per cent. Less than two years later he lost the presidency to a little-known Arkansas Governor with a reputation as a womaniser.

It is with such a sense of caution that Barack Obama looks to the future of his own presidency, because as a keen student of history he knows how quickly his fortunes could founder in the face of the challenges still ahead. After nine months in office Mr Obama has reached a point where he is fully the custodian of America’s problems. He is still trying to blame the fragile economy and the mess in Afghanistan on his predecessor but that is no longer washing with voters. It’s his economy and his war.

His greatest political problem is unemployment, which is set to pass 10 per cent and is stubbornly refusing to follow signs that the recession has ended. The 3.5 per cent growth in GDP reported for the last quarter was trumpeted as proof that February’s bold $787 billion stimulus Bill had staved off disaster and kickstarted the economy. Yet most voters are not concerned with GDP but with whether they have a job. If Mr Obama has not cut unemployment significantly by next November’s midterm elections Democrats on Capitol Hill are set for big losses.

Historically, midterm elections are referendums on the party in power. In 1982, two years into Ronald Reagan’s first term, Republicans lost 27 seats in the House of Representatives, mainly because of high unemployment caused by the 1981 recession. Mr Obama could face similar losses.

There are other pitfalls. Afghanistan has become a complex war with no clear or near-term resolution in sight. There is still no guarantee that the signature issue of his domestic agenda, universal health insurance, will get through Congress. The gargantuan deficit, now $1.4 trillion, has scared voters and become an huge impediment to the rest of Mr Obama’s costly reform programme. Iran has shown little sign of a positive response to Mr Obama’s overtures. Another devastating terror attack on US soil could be blamed on bungled US leadership.

Yet Mr Obama always takes the long view, does not get rattled by the day-to-day political gyrations, and has some reason for optimism about the future and his hopes of winning a second term. He is more likely than not to get a health Bill passed and the day he signs such legislation will be historic.

One of his great assets is that he entered the White House with America’s myriad problems in plain sight. The economy had already crashed. Afghanistan was already a troubled conflict. The threat from Islamic extremists was known. So by the time he begins his re-election campaign Mr Obama could well be hailing an economic recovery — and take all the credit. He could boast something no other president has achieved: universal health coverage. The Afghan war might have turned around. They would be very strong achievements to run on.

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