Hannah Fletcher
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As the death toll in China's Sichuan province climbs, the nation’s bloggers have joined together in the search for a scapegoat.
Broadband connections across the country are pulsing with rumours of "earthquake omens" involving toads or butterflies - all allegedly ignored by the authorities. Some even talk of a vast pre-Olympic conspiracy.
One blogger from Shandong province, in eastern China, wrote that more than a month ago, he went to his local earthquake resesarch centre several times to report that his animals had been disturbed and restless.
But, he wrote: "They not only ridiculed me, they accused me of making up stories."
Other blogs link to Chinese newspaper reports of bizarre natural occurrences in the past few weeks.
The Chutian Metropolis Daily reported that on April 26, 80,000 tonnes of water suddenly drained from a large pond in Enshi, Hubei province. The province shares a border with Chongqing Municipality, which was devastated by the earthquake on Monday.
On May 10, a Sichuan-based newspaper, the West China Metropolis Daily, reported that hundreds of migrating toads descended upon the streets of Mianyang, the second largest city in the province which neighbours Wenchuan County, the epicentre of the earthquake.
The Chinese state news agency reported today that 18,645 people were buried under the city's collapsed buildings and 3,629 people confirmed dead.
In the city of Mianzhu, 60 miles from the epicentre, bloggers pointed to reports just weeks before the earthquake of a mass migration of more than one million butterflies.
Other bloggers seized upon an as yet unsubstantiated rumour that a Chinese geologist had predicted the earthquake in advance but had been stifled by the authorities, and by fear.
"On the seventh of May, a geologist predicted this [earthquake]," wrote one blogger. "But he didn't dare make it public."
Another blogger from Beijing wrote: “Everyone is talking about the rescue effort but they are not actually joining it.
“So, instead we should turn our thoughts to why [the authorities] didn’t forecast the earthquake and evacuate the people...
“Could it be that it was out of a desire for a peaceful Olympics?”
In an editorial in the Southern Metropolis Daily, the established journalist and commentator, Chang Ping, cited the growing tide of rumours and speculation surrounding the earthquake as evidence of the need for greater freedom of information in China.
He wrote: “As the phone lines went down, rumours multiplied...I understood that the vast majority of this information could not be verified and that the police regarded it as the transmission of rumours punishable by criminal detention.
“But as someone with relatives in the affected area, I could not stop myself from seeking whatever information I could ...”
He added: ”The information was clearly unreliable, and it was difficult to tell what was true or false.
“Together it all spoke of a single problem, and that is the people’s fierce appetite for information when faced with a public incident.”
Even if we can predict a quake, by the time warning is evident, it's not likely to enough time to flee. I think some animals can feel it before it occurs: I had parakeets go crazy in the cage for no reason, minutes before a small quake in the 80s; same with our dog a few years ago.
Monica, Bay Area, USA
To give a quake forecast, you must predict precisely when, where and how much is the probability. Otherwise it's just useless. For example, the guy in Shandong province claimed that he had made a prediction. But a prediction of what? Shandong is around 2000km away from the epicenter!
Hai, Denver,
strange animal behaviors, odd weather conditions, etc are certainly a common experience by very localized populations. BUT, they usually occur too close to a timing of a major earthquake to prevent human suffering. AND they also occur frequently enough outside of an aerthquake to make their meaning
bruce, yakima, usa
Gotta love that geologist that predicted the earthquake but did not make it public!
Here is my prediction:
Albert, Montreal, Canada
Horses, for one, are excellent earthquake predictors. It wouldn't suprise me if other animals have innate abilities to sense danger by different means...
Matt, St. Louis, MO, USA
I can't help but remember that when Taiwan suffered a devastating earthquake in Sept, 1999, China decided to play politics and demanded that overseas organizations providing both rescue and relief aid seek approval from the Chinese Govt rather than thru the Taiwanese before being able to do anything
Kym , Sur, Oman
Well, first I'd like to add, that in most instances there are always two sides to every coin which is a common saying here in China. I have in fact been researching Earthquakes since the EARTHQUAKE! As I live here in CHINA now. I used to live in USA.
First, the Gov has responded well really well!
Qiu Feng, Suining, China
Rangers fans are getting blamed for everything else why not this as well.
Scott, London,
Iggy has a good point when he mentions "HAARP" and its effects on the weather. A lot of countries take part in weather manipulation... We CAN start hurricanes!!
In the tsunami there was speculation of a device being set off triggering underwater fault line.
Stop blogging, start digging!!!!!!!
Andrew T, England, UK,
HI,
If we are overseas how are we supposed find out if our realtives are ok?
My father was doing photography in Chengdu on 8th May and I have not heard from him since.
There is absoloutly no news from the English Embassey and I am worried sick!
Is the internet down over there?
Camelia Hyman, Bournemouth, United Kingdom
A remarkable contrast to what is happening in Burma.
Scott, London,
What an unbelievable tragedy for China. Just finished viewing photos of several areas of China affected by the earthquake--OMG! Also viewed several photos of all those toads trying to cross the road. Hey, mainstream science, time to pull your heads out of your academic butts and learn something.
R.Cannon, Jefferson City, USA
My sympathies to the families that have lost people.
Mike, Dubai,
It is pointless now to lay blame on anyone. What is important is people are still trapped in the rubbles and needed urgent rescue. Once things are settled and people are on their feet again we can discuss what was wrong, what should have been done and what can be done to avoid such mishaps.
Lim, Johor Bahru, Malaysia
Victor from the Phillipines, you are wrong. The Chinese government has not sent in troops to rescue people, far too many have effectively been abandoned, with no shelter, food or clean water. Too many are sleeping in the streets with only mosquito nets for shelter in pouring rain.
Jenny, Grand Rapids, MI, US
ANIMALS AS INDICATORS..........................I cannot count how many times I have read articles that animals actually are great EQ indicators and we ignore the warnings. And to read that 80k gallons of lake disappeared should have caused some redflags. But as in every country the bureacrats rule.
gary, CA, USA
Chinas response to the earthquakes victims show her care for his people. The chinese are in one heart during this time of need. Anywhere you go there is an effort to extend a helping hand to the people in Sichuan province. I just hope this great nation will learn to humble themselves to GODand pray!
Victor, Bacolod City, Philippines
I remember doing research on earthquakes several years ago and read several times that the Chinese government uses nature to predict earthquakes. Some of the reports revealed that the Chinese government has "watchers" throughout the country watching animal behavior. These reports gave examples.
Steveng, Los Angeles, USA
There are fuzzy Earthquake omens everywhere ..... the day before the earthquake I cycled past the Chinese Consulate in Geneva and suffered a puncture. The first ever puncture for me in Europe!
Iris, Geneva, CH
As a fellow human being I would like to apologize for John Frosts comments. No country is immune from criticism. China may not be perfect but lets remember which country spearheaded one of the worlds worst humanitarian disasters ever, Iraq. By the way where is the US as people die in Darfur?
Sarah Jarvis , London , England
scientists cannot prove that the animals can forecast the disaster,how can you bilieve that?Also, the report is based on blogs in China. I am in china now, i cannot see any information concerning what the report had said. i can only see the people, no matter old or young, are joining it.
christina cao, hainan, china
Don't be so rude and cold-blooded. We cried and preyed for you when 911, now it's your turn. We are all human anyway....
Lance, CD, China
Ok, I normally never react to moronic statements, but anybody who could believe that this could have been predicted should explain exactly how, as in the last decades we have had plenty of earthquakes and as far as i know none of them have been predicted!To all the GOD worshippers one word: IDIOTS
Olivier Brutin, Suzhou, China
First, we are not capable of controlling the weather. There is no modern means to predict something like this. It was no one's fault and China has rushed in to help its people.
And to John Frost, God doesn't punish people by creating natural disasters. That's stupid.
Melissa, Wisconsin, USA
"China needs to be held accountable too!!" - PK, Minneapolis, US
By whom? You? If the majority of the Chinese people aren't blaming anyone, why should we?
Pete, Cov,
I think it is groundless to blame anybody at this stage. Most important is to rescue the trapped, help the victims regain and rebuild their lives. Sichuan is a quake prone area, so it is best that single storey quake proof buildings be built in future. Prevention is better than cure. All the best.
Lim, Johor Bahru, Malaysia
ignore nature?I am living in sichuan, 50 miles from the epicenter. i wont blame anyone at this moment. but , pls remember china is a big country, if you want to connect every strange animal behavior with disaster like this, you wont dare to open your eyes every morning.
maggie, chengdu, sichuan
Interesting. When there is talk of gov't flubbing its responsibility in the US (FEMA - Katrina), there is a public outcry and calling for heads to roll. But in China, where the gov't limits freedoms regularly...there should be no conversation?? China needs to be held accountable too!!
PK, Minneapolis, US
Since we do not know enough about earthquakes, we should take the best of what we do have. In the last tsunami, all of the wild animals fled, obviously feeling earth's vibrations, before the wave(s) hit. And it has been an indicator for centuries, that if the animals flee so should the humans.
Kathy, West Palm Beach, USA
Also, our own geologists watch lake levels in our Yellowstone National Park for any indication on water levels / high low sides, etc. as an indicator of trouble brewing. You use what you have at hand. If you see animals etc fleeing, it is time to leave. But to where in which direction???
Kathy, West Palm Beach, USA
HAARP is real and they do use it to cause earth quakes. They can even tell you the date time and place right up to the minute when it will happen. They already did it in Japan. They also use it for many other things like controling hurricanes. Just do a search on You Tube for HAARP.for News Report
Brent, MIAMI, USA
Also predicted here
http://prophecies.us/yabb/YaBB.pl?num=1209356046
dew, little town,
Well Dan Xuereb, Cardiff, Wales do a search on the subject microchip or verichip.
The mark is actually a chip and they have them in store now having made them a long time ago. Millions of them.
The rotten thing leaks its battery according to the Bible and brings sores to the skin. Check boils.
G. Gibson, Sydney, Australia
chineese people unlike americans, are not brainwashed, they dont have a choice they say something they get imprisoned and killed
Brian, Miami, Florida
It could be manipulated weather. My own senator Kay Bailey Hutchison, introduced a weather modification bill in the senate about 3 years ago. If they're just now trying to get a bill like this through the senate, then that means they have been manipulating the weather for years.
Kim, Dallas, USA
Shows the problem with our personalised news world. The blind lead the blind. A rumour went around Beijing on the day of the quake of another quake here between 10pm and 12. Within hours everyone had heard it and no matter what scientific evidence I showed my colleagues they stayed up waiting.
Dave Williams, Beijing, China
"I'm sad to see some people like 'Charles' below still think that Chinese people are brain-washed and easily follow government's propoganda. " - David, Shanghai
They don't follow the government but pay great heed to internet rumour and speculation which is potentially even more dangerous.
Dave Williams, Beijing, China
My thoughts are with those who have been affected. Political issues/silly bloggers etc etc must all seem pretty meaningless at the moment. Wishing those injured a speedy recovery.
Dave Williams, Beijing, China
China helps Iran and Syria against Israel and chinesse rockets slam and kill God's people everyday.
So god has no mercy with China and or Myanmar and Obama states in the US, also destroyed by God's tornadoes.
John Frost, Miami Beach, USA
Funny.
In the US, just over 1800 people die the in Katrina disaster, and the sitting government is chastised and accused of criminal behavior.
Tens of thousands have died in China. Where is the criticism? Where is the outrage?
Ryan, Mechanicsville, USA
There is some cause for concern considering how advanced science is when it comes to humans being able to control weather unknown to the public. Ever heard of HAARP? Or the mass aerosol spraying the past few years? Go to cyberspaceorbit.com and whatdoesitmean.com/index1098.htm.
iggy, la, usa
John,California has had one just as big and has done better. No where the number of lives lost. Shoddy construction cost lives.
stan, columbia, usa
I'm sad to see some people like 'Charles' below still think that Chinese people are brain-washed and easily follow government's propoganda. In modern information age how can you cover up the news and prevent people from getting the truth, esp. a huge country like China? thoughts w/ all ppl affected
David, Shanghai, China
It is never a good thing when people die... Burma, the tsunami, hurricanes in the US, tornados in my state of texas...
It devistates families and communities. The earth is not always friendly to humans. We must adjust and move on. We must help each other in times of need...
todd, dallas, usa
Al, She is asking you and me the same question. After all, we're both here, on this planet, equipped with hands and arms and hearts, and wallets in our pockets.
Lloyd, Hereford,
When tragic events occur we are all brothers and sisters. Earthquake predictions are not really available yet anywhere. Buildings can be made safer and more able to protect rather than harm people. I pray for the people effected by the quake. Please know, you have friends who care the world over.
Shauna, Phoenix, USA
Thank you for all of the people 1best wishes for china ,best wishes for the world peaple!As a chinese ,i am pround
Ma xiao ying , beijing, china
Only comments below, but not the article,is meaningful here. Modern quake tech still at infancy n can only estimate possibility of quake over a long timespan by years.There're tens of million ppl in North Sichuan.Can any authority ask so many ppl to stay outdoors for 1 year because of some toads?
Chris, Hong Kong,
When you limit peoples' access to information you are setting yourself up for conspiracy theories. We get enough of them in open societies, but access to information limits the damage.
RG, Arizona, USA
Some love conspiracy theories. Probably "the signs" only become apparent in retrospect. For those who say there is a super-tight control in China on information and discussion, guess all these bloggers have proved otherwise.
ed, london,
Even in Japan, which has developed the most advanced earthquake proof technology in the world, they suffered more than 5,500 killed and over 26,000 injured during the 1995 Kobe earthquake(M=6.9, China suffered 7.8 this time). Someone just need to learn more about earthquake than your lovely pets.
infrast, Edinburgh, UK
Let us all stop talking about this and get busy doing what we can to help the missing and injured...those who need medicines, water, clothing and real information about loved ones!
mlgordon, Seal Rock,
Forget the stupid olympic torch for now and do something about those people! Who cares about olympic records or the money that tourists will bring in! People are dying out there!
mon, quezon,
My anger provoked by some unfair comments is balanced off by my gratitude towards readers showing great sympathy and understanding. As a native Chinese, I thank you all with a tear in my eye. Best wishes to you too!
Yuan, Hainan, People's Republic of China
personally, i think spreading highly fabricated untruly misleading news in sensitive topics which might cause social turbulence is a n action of crime and guilty
xiaoguangli, augsburg, germany
Charles, The freedom loving and none socialist USA really prepared for Katrina eh! Natural disasters happen,not due to political systems, but to the fact that the Earth has systems that produce these events. Lets see if California will be any better when the big one hits.
John, London, Uk
James,how can you lie here when you know nothing about china &we chinese people?
Shame On you ,who misunderstood us because of the misleading media.We have the different culture,maybe you should know more about asia&china,just as we know everything about manchester united
Bless surffering chinese
Brian, Xiamen, PRC
I am really sad today when all the TV news are all telling about the disasters in mainland. People lose their lives and families in a few minutes. I am living very far away from Sichuan. What I can do is to donate the money to the Red + Association.
Teresa , Macau, China
What is the biggest blunder or shall I say neglect on the vast death toll in China Earthquake was the incapacity of the government to really establish stringent regulation on the the structural designs of their multi-story buildings. This is particularly for public occupation and use.
amado, Maria Aurora, Aurora , Philippines
oh, no! free thought! must... clean... every part of my body!!! let it go, people... get real.
John M.F. Sample, Southington, USA
As someone who comes from a country ,New Zealand,where major earthquakes are part of life, I am heartened by the quick response by the Chinese govenments quick response to the natural distaster.
I think Wen Jiabao deserves a Gold medal for his efforts.
David Burt, Tian jin, China
The one thing I noticed wasn't mentioned that I find merely interesting is that Premier Wen Jiboa(sp?) went to college for geology and the study of earthquake sciences. If he had received (and I don't believe he did) all that info on the lake/animal behavior, what would he have done?
kimberlee whitaker, Florence, U.S.
Predicting natural disasters under any meaningful scientific criteria is in its infancy. Therefore, the only thing that we as humans can do is observe our environment which includes the peculiar movements of large animal populations that havent had their senses dulled by to much technology.
Robert, Salt Lake, UT, USA
A devastating quake that would cause massive damage anywhere, made all the more disasterous by shoddy construction.
Let us all pray for the people of China, those who lost their lives, and those left to mourn.
Rick, Smithifield, RI , USA
The various "omens" from the animals' behavior are not hocus-pocus. They are picking up on micro-tremors too small even for our machines to register that prelude such an event as well as other such signs. Such things should never be ignored.
Matt, Rochester, NY, USA
This is really sad! My prayers go out to those suffering.
Paula Smith, Boulder, USA
Maybe we shouldn't have angered God so much - He seems to have run out of patience. Can't say I blame him.
Paula Smith, Boulder, USA
Don't trust anything anyone from China writes on these blogs. They are ALL government plants. The Chinese people do not have freedom of expression or speech.
james, London,
A device has been in the works for years that affects weather and has the ability to create geological disturbances. It is obvious that the AXIS of good controls this device and is using it to disrupt the thriving AXIS of evil nations. Do some research on the internet and you can find many articles.
Chris, ATL, US
This reminds me of the great fire that damaged the forbidden city in the 1400's. That caused China, which at the time was dominating the world, to turn away from the world and isolate itself. Could all of these disasters ultimately have a similar affect?
Ken Menzies, Longwood, USA
Iain, London, said...Hurricane Katrina and New Orleans in the 'free & prosperous' good ol' US of A suggest otherwise.
There is a difference when you are warned and too stupid to get out of the way. There was plenty of warning in New Orleans... everybody was too lazy to heed the warning. Nagan !!
jimbo, Pgh, USA
This one exceeds 1976 tangshan quake that killed 200,000. In same year Mao died, and zhou en lai, and zhu de; Mao's wife was jailed, Deng started his reform.
What is to come now? end of reform? end of another era?
I'd watch out for Taiphoon this summer! southeast region could be in ruins..
haoru, new york,
It is well documented that animals, birds, insects and especially reptiles find out of the impending natural diasters like earth quake, hurricanes etc. Ex :Snakes and ants leave their holes before an earth quake - this has been reported for millenia and has been scinetifically proven.
Liam, Cottingham, east riding
I blame George Bush and Haliburton, they seem to be behind all things evil and desctructive these days
Ima Geylib, San Francisco, USA
What's wrong? Isn't anyone going to blaim bush.
Or maybe Godzilla or Climate change. This is a huge tragidy and human loss. If I was there I would stop blogging and start digging.
Rich, Concord, USA
Just goes to show how this form of capitalism-authoritarianism type of government can't work. I do hope that someday in the near future the people in China can freely get access to information on the whereabouts of their relatives in disastrous calamities such as this earthquake.
Daniel Matthias Yoo, Yongin, South Korea
Just out of morbid curiosity, what exactly were the authorities supposed to say when they released the "information"? "Citizens of China, animals are acting strange." Then what? Would people be any safer sitting around trying to figure out what the cow was trying to say by running around the field?
Ryan, San Diego, CA
Perhaps the frogs and butterflies were trying to find Chicken Little and Henny Penny who thought the sky was falling down when an acorn dropped on Chicken Little's head????
This is a tragic situation made all the more sad by other peoples theories of make believe....
Louise Hardy, Mirfield, uk
Long Live China ,
All our prayers are for China and for the Dead children , teachers , Chinese citizen who have perished in the Massive quake , no geologist or none can predict the exact occurence of a Quake , it is all presumptions but yes animals do get a hint of its coming .
Tanvir Ahmed Khan , Maharashtra , India
Those who are blaming this tragic consequence to china and "shoddy constructions" do not appreciate the magnitude of this earthquake, 7.9! mountains tear, rivers reverse, let alone human made structures. You bring your Buckingham palace here it will fall. Stop blindminded trashing china. Compassion!
Bob, Beijing,
I agree. I am an American living in China now. I have seen the censorship here. Anytime the news is showing something about the government the quickly cut to a commercial or another program. Here the government really does not care about it's people.
leonard, chongqing, china
i always thought that earth quakes were caused by tectonic plates building up pressure, and suddenly slipping past eachother not biblical reasons
David, Weymouth, Dorset
It is easy to predict an earthquake if you put a big enough bomb
in the ground. Would china do that to quiet the media attention on
Tibet. Why not they will roll over unarmed protesters with tanks to quiet them
john wardlow, Philly, USA
Wait!! It's George Bush's fault (no pun intended).
Paul Marthaler, san diego, USA
I know this may sound super crazy, but....If they can send rockets to the sky to prevent it from raining on the opening Olympic ceremony in the Bird's Nest (that has no roof), I am almost certain that they can conjure up elements that would create a cyclone. Just hit a known fault line & get quake.
Pompeii Hampton, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
Anyone have some common sense knows that earthquake prediction is still a world-class puzzle. There's no one in the world can predict where or when it happens.
What the victims need are the supports from international communities. What is Times doing here making these ridiculous innuendos.
YJ, Beijing, China
I believe the superstitions:
how else can you explain all the disasters in just three months? first, strange Ice storm froze all roads in south china(first in history); the Tibet revolt; central china outbreak of disease; shanghai bus bombing; Mymma storm; now, sichuan earthquake!
haoru, new york,
I am not a conspiracy theorist, nor am i Chinese, but i've lived thru earthquakes here in the San Francisco Bay Area. Nothing like this one that occurred in China, however. You have my empathy and compassion. Flu, now another reason NOT to have the Olympics in Beijing. Francesca, Berkeley, USA
Francesca de Solaris, Berkeley, USA
It's China - What do you expect? Communists do not care about people, only power. People are only necessary to keep their government running.
Paul, Saint Louis, USA
So a bunch of frogs and /or butterflys where on the move, im sure most people would not link that to an earthquake in any country. the real issue is why it wasnt picked up by geologists and why where the buildings not earthquake ready.
pete, rochford, essex
To Charles of Portland - WHAT!?!? " Free & prosperous people can prepare for, prevent & mitigate calamities etc" - oh really! Hurricane Katrina and New Orleans in the 'free & prosperous' good ol' US of A suggest otherwise. As for solace in faith! That didnt seem to help rebuild New Orleans either.
Iain, London,
Actually, the Bibble predicted all of this, so, you know... they should make that a required reading for "Earthquake Detection through non-scientific means 101".
Peter, London, UK
I can see where the speculation comes from as China has a "Weather Modification Office" that are manipulating the weather. There current aim is for it not to rain in the launch of the Olimpics. They have been working in this field since 1958. It's called "Cloud Seeding" and "Cloud-Busting".
Andrew, North, England, UK,
One who are blaming at the moment while Sichuan peoples are in disaster, suffering is shame.
Do some thing or shut your mouth up!
kychie, Hong Kong,
True, no one can reliably predict an earthquake. But shoddy construction practices will turn a big tragedy into an event of the century. Concrete buildings with no iron bar reinforcement are an accident waiting to happen. Just look at the news photos and see how few partial collapses occurred...
Lance, Shanghai, China
Rather like Zimbabwe my country of birth. The authorities control all information media and only have published what they want people to hear. As a result rumours are rife everywhere, including superstitious ones. Freedom of information is such an important freedom.You realise when you don't have it
Charan Muzaya, London, UK
I think it was the sudden arrival of a low pressure storm inthe the indian ocean which blew away Myanmar as it went inland the suction destabilised the tectonics in the region when the moon went over it let go...just a theory
Barry, Chesham, uk
... Construction reform is long overdue in China where the poor folks in the countryside relish the chance to move into one of thos concrete coffins as soon as they are economically able. And cheap, unreinforced concrete makes more of them able than should be.
Lance, Shanghai, China
I wonder what role if any the new three rivers dam filling had on this disaster. A lake the size of Colorado which many scientists has said will slightly alter the earth axis might have profound effects on the plate techtonics in the region.
Obi, Denver, CO, USA
Surely the only power that could have prevented this earthquake is the omnipotent God worshipped by so may people worldwide. Why did She just let it happen?
Al, Weybridge, UQ
I was living in Colorado in 1980 and thousands of people from California suddenly showed up renting places, buying places and camping. I asked the ones I'd met why they'd moved here. The answer was, "The Big One". They REALLY expected California to just shake off into the Pacific!
mullah_marco, Paris, France
I proposed China govertment be condemmed for human rights violitions for not publishing the known facts of animal stranger behavior before earthquake happens. The poor people of Seechuan have perished coz they have not been given prior warning of earthquake! Shame on China govertment for loses!
VIKRAM SUNDHI, BANGALORE, INDIA
For God Sakes, This is a natural disaster! Have the Internet users in China gone nuts? There obviously no conspiracy and those who can't get it through their thick skulls should really see a doctor. And we wonder why mental illness is one of the biggest health issue in China.
Allan, Beijing,
I saw a cat this morning. I guess Germany is in for a big one.
Chuck
CHS, Bamberg, Germany
The geologists should have paid more attention to the people reporting abnormalities and not outright dismissed them. Sometimes scientists rely too much on their educations and equipment and not enough on common sense. The animals and pond draining should have let them know something was not right.
Brent, Durham, United States
Yes, something strange did happen somewhere in China. But it was another province where it happened, not Si Chuan. Even though we knew something bad would happen, how on earth could we point out what it would be and where it would take place?
Something just can not be predicted precisely.
James, Beijing, China
The real problem is and always was socialism, as it was with the Burmese cyclone, hurricane Katrina and now in the Chinese earthquake. Free & prosperous people can prepare for, prevent & mitigate calamities, & they can take solace in their faith and face death with courage and dignity, if necessary
Charles, Portland, OR , USA
Before an earthquake there would be cracks and sliding of the earth crust which will generate a lot of subsonic and supersonic waves which are undetectable by human ears. However, ground and water are good trasmitting media for these distubances which are sensed by animals, thus the panic movements
Sam Chen, Cherry Hill, NJ, USA
Experiencing an earthquake of such magnitude is a terrifying psychological event, even if you aren't physically harmed at all. One day life is normal, yet the next day nothing feels like it will be the same anymore. My empathy, hope for recovery, and condolences go out to the people of Sichuan.
B Jonsson, Costa Mesa, CA, US
some ppl have made light of the notion that animals
can sense and earthquake shortly beforehand.
...en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earthquake_prediction#Animal_behavior
Ignore the world and all its creatures at your own peril.
Duane M. Navarre, OKC, USA
There is an earthquake predictor in the U.S. who can predict earthquake locations and strength just by analysizing the number of lost pet adds placed in newspapers. He's very accurate. But I believe he only can predict the big ones, which is great when you think about it. Yes, animals do give signs
Bubba Johnson, Tiny Town, KY, NAU
NO CONSPIRACY
An earthquake is a natural phenomenon.
Science has not yet developed the capability of predicting earthquakes.
The tragic event in China has unfolded as it always does: suddenly and without reliable warning. Authorities can´t evaquate the city everytime your dog is jittery.
Alex, Bologna, Italy
We pray for the good people of China. Our hearts go out to you.
Todd Lewis, Sandia Park, USA
God, Allah, Buddah...your fault, my fault...whose fault? Why must people point fingers at who didn't do what? People are dead, people are dying. Young children who were thought to be safe with their classmates are now dead and never to play, laugh, or have families of their own.
Michael Blair, Chongqing, China
Oh, no. It sounds like we shall have some people talk to animal, bird & fish to predict natural earthquake.
Benjamin, Los Angeles, CA, USA
Earthquake happened everyday even every hour in the world, bigger or smaller. Government needs to evacuate citizens time to time due to the frog or butterfly? The word consipiracy is too much and it is only a natural disaster. what we can do now is only to pray for the dead and wish more to be saved
micky, Dalian, China
Have lived in No. Calif. for 35 yrs, experiencing a few quakes
including the xtreme one in '89 with loss of life; rarely have I heard someone say they "felt" something was about to happen, in days preceding the tremors. Still, the sudden loss of water from that pond can't be ignored, either!
Walter, Berkeley, CA, USA
comments should base on the consolidated evidence. Nation has tried the best to rescue lives from the disaster.
Sam, melbourne,
What is done is done, it is just as hard to predict an earthquake as it is a tornado, it can't be confirmed until it is in progress. I say do not worry about the whys and what ifs, get to the matter at hand relieve the suffering. China reacted quickly to this disaster and should be applauded.
Ron Wood, Kaufman, USA
Gibson, firstly it prophesises no such thing in Revelations - it actually says that those without the mark of the devil (his name or number) on their right hand or forehead will be unable to buy or sell. I'm pretty sure they never mention microchips. Secondly, and most importantly, it's just a book.
Dan Xuereb, Cardiff, Wales
it is a disaster.Now what's most important is to reduce the loss as possible as we can rather than gossip.
God bless the people in the earthquake-stricken areas.
Share, Ningbo, China
Blaming only does nothing, but should focus instead on providing relief and more immediate aid to the buried.
Then when this is all over, only then should they put their attention on how to prevent this in future.
I am very sorry for the losses. My prayers are with them.
Rachel, Quezon City, Philippines
"Chinese culture is riddled with superstition" writes Stephen from I.O.W.
So is much western culture. You have only to read the replies on this to see that.
Filey, Scarborough, UK
Hey Gibson,
Have you considered the second coming of Jesus is really on the inside? Meaning humans will experience a shift (for the better) in their consciousness. If this world is nothing more than a projection of our minds, perhaps what we are seeing is us going through house cleaning...
Lance, Albuquerque, NM, USA
The important thing to me is that these bloggers apparently have the freedom to openly criticise the Chinese government. Things have changed for the better it seems.
Shane, Nagasaki, Japan
Most of the damage happened in smaller cities/towns in remote areas, where buildings were not as well constructed as in nearby bigger cities such as Mianyang and Chengdu, where 20+ floors highrise apartment buildings had little damage. The army,special rescue teams and local people are rescuing ppl
Michael, San Jose, CA, USA
When I was pregnant, sitting at my Koi pond, fish started swimming in an agitated pattern I'd never seen before then my water broke. They knew, I didn't. Animals DO sense things we don't. My prayers are for the survivors and I'm sorry for their losses.
naomi, dallas, usa
I have to say it is so unilateral.
yes, some people are blaming the earthquake resesarch centre who pay no attention to the omens.But much more Chinese poeple focus on the relife work. They are worry about their compatriot in Sichuan and are donating money and blood.
agaya, beijing, china
I absolutely agree with the migration of insects and behavior changes of animals being a STRONG indicator of an impending disaster/catastrophy.
Refer to any intermediate science textbook, and it will explain nature's innate connection to animal and plant life, unlike the distorted one with humans
Darling MickE, Jonesboro, United States
Pals. They, I mean the Chinese have their hand full now. What we shall do is hand out our helo but gossip. Are there any reputable organization or country ever predict the earthquark sucessfully? Give them a break!
Jim niu, Rowland heights, Ca., USA
In 1981 my parents were driving my sister from Ohio to Indiana for a college interview. MY father said that there was going to be an earthquake. Sure enough there was a small tremor. He said that the cows and birds were acting funny.
Based on my father's funny actions we're due one every day.
Jim, Jabriya, Kuwait
There are earthquake monitoring/forecasting systems in China, which are based on pre-earthquake, abnormal animal activities, etc. Somehow the central earthquake organization did not receive such report cards from Wenchuan.
in Chinese:
http://news.sina.com.cn/c/2008-05-13/201015531372.shtml
Michael, San Jose, CA, USA
The tradgey no doubt will impact Chinese ecnomy, but which confused my deeply is that why some quake experts had no response, no informtation to alert people, many deads are innocent children, for their school building are weak to be destroyed by earth quake. pray for China, pray for our motherland.
Spike, Shanghai, China
So butterflies act strangely and what do you do .. close schools for weeks and see if anything happens? Not practical or reliable.
Most damage and deaths occur in poor areas. Best to enforce building codes and supervise construction. But if a Quake is BIG enough, disaster can only be minimized.
JB, Shanghai,
A few days before the earthquake a bundle of cockroaches (prob 7 or 8) lay dead on the balcony of my house. When I went out to buy noodles, I saw another bundle of cockroaches dead (around 10) on the street. It freaked me out a little. I went home and told my Dad there could be a natural disaster.
Huang, Shanghai, China
I can watching on line TV :Chengdu news : 800 soliders are arriving in wenchuan , country leader Mr. Wenjiabao also arriived in Wenchuan . China's government responded quickly and well organized so far to rescue mission . private car owners in thousands went to help voluntarrily last night
gzhang, Long Beach, USA
I cried when I saw those picture of dead children recover from the rubles. I can feel the pain and sorrow of these parents. Children are always precious and the hope of every Chinese family. I send my condolences, prayers to all the victims of the family.
jen, Tainan, Taiwan
The afternoon after the quake the official CTTV was broadcasting a live news conference from Beijing, featuring officials from the disaster & other organizations. A Chinese reporter, asked about officially pre-quake indicators. The live press conference was abruptly terminated at this point.
John, Kunming, China
I doubt that any of the animal movements could be of any use, but any geologist worth their strata should have been looking at earth movements after 80,000 tons of water drained out of a lake.
Sam Vivian, Dallas,
Excuse me, has ever a government over the world predicted an earthquake sucessfully? Which goverment would confirm earthquake according to a blogger who was lack of professional judgement?
nicole, Shenzhen,
I think China is doing a good job of responding. I don't think you should look for the "political" here-the devastation is on a massive scale and we should help if they need it.
DK, la, usa
Actually, there's been substantial evidence for centuries that many animals exhibit odd behavior just prior to earthquakes. It's not nonsense and it's been widely noted. The theory is that they can sense subsonic vibrations in the tectonic plates.
Almijisti, hoodad,
I live in Bluff New Zealand, at about 11.15 I felt a small shake, latter that night the news came around about the Earth Quake in China. Butterflys and and other omens, why not. As far as truth being told to the people, no where in the world does the truth get told, 911 etc..
Raoul Butler, Bluff, New Zealand
I knew this was going to happen. Al Gore has been acting strangely for some time now.
Mike, El Dorado, USA
This stuff sounds like spin to me. The story here is that staff at the seismic station say they were prevented from issuing a warning because of the Olympic games and the possibility of unrest of in Tibetan Northern Sichuan
antony clark, Deyang, China
Humans have lost their ability to sense natural disasters but other animals haven't. Animals have better sensed than we do and it's not totally unbelievable that the animals knew what would happen.
Cindy, New York City, USA
In the last days the Bible says there will be a great increase in wars, EARTHQUAKES, famines and diseases (Luke chapter 21) .
Theres also a micro chip for either the right hand or forhead economy prophesied in Revelation 13:16-18 and 14:9-11 on the horizon.
It all points to Jesus' soon return.
G. Gibson, Sydney, Australia
maybe we should question why bush has money to send to china and burma, while we still have homeless people in new orleans and whole communities that still need clean up. what about those people. let china take care of china! we need to take care of our own!
maria, atwater california,
The other day, I saw 10 million ants having a wild orgy. That must mean the world is coming to an end!
jj, Columbus, US
The earthquake is notorious for its quickness in movement and difficulty in prediction. The abnormal behaviours of animals can be caused by so many different factors. How can we just draw a hasty conclusion that our gov delibrately ignores the quake omens?
wuyou, wuhan, China
All the blogging in the world isn't going to hide what is obvious to most of the Chinese people: that the "judgement of heaven" is on the Chinese government, in fact many times over. Brutal suppression of all dissident opinion is the crime, and judgement is the penalty.
John, La Paz,
Come on. You can't blame the Chinese government for not evacuating people ahead of time. Earthquake science is about the "possibility" of an earthquake occuring, not an exact prediction. It was a natural disaster, that's all. And those of us close by, in China, should organize clothing drives.
Brian Compton, Shanghai, China
Chinese culture is riddled with superstation and in some ways this helps them make sense of what has happen. We cant use animal behavior to predicting earthquakes, science is the only way. It's time that all countries living in earthquake zones need to think more about their construction methods.
Stephen, Newport, IOW,
Pray for the people in Sichuan. I don't want to find whether the earthquake is predictable or not. The most important thing is to rescue those lives buried. 2008 should be a luck year for Chinese. But so many disasters happened. Anyway, I believe that we can recover from the natural disasters.
Wei, Shanghai, China
Claim : ' elephants strangely moved inward many hours before tsunami hit '
Evidence : ' elephants satellite collars record ' ' no evidence of flight behavior was found ' ' moved to the beach, not away '
Nothing ' unusual ' . Humans love to tell stories , especially fictional ones ....
Sal Thomas, Calgary , Canada
You used the wrong word, conspiracy, in the article. The bloggers are not talking about conspiracies, but about the fact that there exist "alternative" modes of predicting earthquakes and tsunamis that are based on "natural" rather than scientific knowledge.
Dayahka, Aberdeen, USA
Chinese are strong people and all of our best wishes for china and good luck in Olympics games..
Mohammad, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
Many people claim to be able to predict the stock market as well. You always hear how the last recession was "predicted". You never hear the *countless* theories that failed to find the mark. The same goes here. "Obvious" warnings are only such upon retrospection.
greg, Vancouver, Canada
I cried at the news and photos.
As a Chinese student in the US, I couldn't help wondering why the school buildings were that vulnerable. Children are the hope of Chinese families, not to mention the "one child per family" policy. I can't imagine how the parents will handle the loss.
Lina, Newark, US
Accounts of animal anticipation of earthquakes have surfaced across the centuries since. Catfish moving violently, chickens that stop laying eggs and bees leaving their hive in a panic have been reported. Countless pet owners claimed to have witnessed their cats and dogs acting strangely before....
Susan Lovejoy, Byron Bay, Australia
Hindsight is always 100% accurate
Tom, Toronto,
But ancient methods still exist. We lost our instincts and our sensitivity to nature. Therefore we require a canary in the coal mine. We need to heed any strange migrations or animal activities. Even with the Tsunami the animals had made their way towards higher ground well before it hit.
Gen, Lowell, US
There is no sure way to predict an earthquake... although there are some interesting precursors. The West Coast of Canada closely watches the Juan de Fuca tectonic plate as it slides along, little tremors that put us on notice that someday something big and bad is eventually gonna happen.
Richard , Victoria , Canada
I think perhaps the problem for the Chinese bloggers is that when they normally receive information it has been massaged by the information ministry so that all the media outlets are singing from the same red book. In an emergency they get the same type of fragmented information we are used to.
Callum, Jakarta, Indonesia
With so many people in China, each with their own story, coincidences are bound to show themselves. Without good "truthy" information sources, people are bound to cling to whatever shreds of information they can find--anything to explain such a tragedy. China needs a better ministry of information.
Will C., Portland, Oregon, USA
I live in California where we have earthquakes often and are expecting a big one soon. I predict "the big one" just about every time something unusual happens (weather/animal behavior/etc..) but fortunately I've been wrong every time. One of these days I will be right and viewed as a prophet.
Charles, Santa Monica, CA, USA
The Chinese have led the world in researching earthquake omens including a vast amount of research into animal behaviour. My understanding is that there is little evidence to suggest that animals are capable of earthquake prediction. This is not time for the peddling unhelpful conspiracy theories.
Ian , Pett, United Kingdom
I've read a book about the Tangshan earthquake, animals were behaving strangely as well on the days before that earthquake. I guess it must be some special sense that humans do not have. Of course, it'll take years before someone proves this scientifically.
Alasdair, London, UK
Compared to the government policy of not many years ago I am amazed at the information being released. Scientists should note and investigate the reports of unusual animal and physical activity of water because this has been seen elsewhere in the world. My sympathy for the injured and those lost.
Phil de Buquet, Newport,
The Chinese have been able to predict earthquakes before and successfully evacuate people to safety before the quake. If there were signs of a coming earthquake the government should have taken heed of them. It's not all quackery and hocus pocus if you read the research.
Daniel, Los Angeles,
Animal behaviour predicting natural disasters is a favourite amongst superstitious people as well as nature buffs who think it's cute to assume that frogs are smarter than scientists. One thing the bloggers are right about though is the need for information - here the need for education is obvious.
Mark, London,
Why do we need to read this? If incredibly someone knew an earthquake was coming, there are still 30milion people in Chongqing city alone, what are you going to do? Ask them to wait outside?This is a terrible tragedy compounded by poor building standards, in an emerging economy, no conspiracy needed
Paul Smout, Wuhu, China
The death of thousands should not be trivialized by the idea that the government was looking for sympathy from the global community to bring balance to controversy. Perhaps there were subtle signs from nature but either way this event was unpreventable and as tragic as it was, part of nature itself
Lyle, Winnipeg, MB, Canada
I wish it could be predicted, if there's anyway.
Guess the bloggers are doing this because they don't want to face the fact that, the disaster just happened and there's no way to prevent it even with all the high-tech tools. They want to believe they could have done something....
Iris, Hong Kong,
I agree that animals/birds can exhibit strange behaviors at times of natural calamities - - but no one in China, including the government, should be accused of negligence or cover-up!! That's ludicrous.
My prayers go to the victims.
Robert Greene, Florida , USA
Several species behave abnormally prior to big events. It is their senses.Ex: Dogs can hear higher decibels, like many animals. Mass migrations and sinking water are clues to something big. Listen to an earthquake's sound: http://www.seismo.unr.edu/ftp/pub/louie/class/100/seismic-waves.html
LUIS LEON, SOUTH GATE,CA, U.S.A
I feel sooo sorry for all the victims of the earthquake in China! That had to be so frightening!
We had a slight earthquake of 5.2 here in Indiana, on April 18th. That was scary enough, and we don't usually have tremblers here!
People noticed animals acting strange here too.
Julie, Fort Wayne, U.S.A.
One good characteristic of Chinese is never give up, no matter how hard or difficult!
All best wishes to China and Chinese people.
William, Adelaide, Australia
There is documented evidence of many correlations between natural phenomena which consistently occur before quakes. Animal Behavior, EMFs, DEMETER satellite data... Why not have a warning system? We have "Terror Alert Levels"... are those based on any exact science? The only difference is politics
Ryan , Santa Rosa, CA, Quake country
You've got to be kidding me! There is no vast conspiracy hiding the forecast of an earthquake. You can't accurately predict earthquakes. It's just terrible that the infrastructure is so bad that it caused so much destruction. I wouldn't trust this country to build olympic stadiums!
Autumn, London,
Such a horrible experience for anyone to endure. My heart and sympathy goes out to all the people impacted by this catastrophe.
Ron, Dripping Springs, USA
If someone can invent a method to predict earthquakes precisely, he/she will certainly be the next Nobel Prize winner!
Terry, Victoria, Canada
this article makes it like Chinese government wants to cover up everything. if there's clear evidence of earth quake forecast, of course they will warn the people. but the fact is there is no scientific evidence shown the links between animal behavior and the earthquake.
Ren, limerick, ireland
I was on the 34th floor of a hotel in Chengdu when this happened. I have been in earthquakes in China before, and I didn't see them coming either. They just happened. How accurate could your predictions be - month/week/day? - and what would you do if you did predict this - shut everything down?
Chris, Chengdu,
It is not new that some animals/birds might have sensed the earthquake and behave abnormally well before the quake happened. Other abnormal natural phenomenon, such as the sudden loss of water of a lake may all be part of the earthquake symptoms, which should not be simply dismissed as superstitious.
Kenpgh, Plymouth, England
As a Pakistani I mourn for the loss of life and property in our all-weather friend China.
I send my condolences, peayers and good wishes to my Chinese friends..
Dr M A R, London,
There have been instances of strange animal behavior days before the occurrence of natural disaster. Japanese scientists even conduct experiments on this. For example in SriLanka, elephants along the coastline strangely moved inward many hours before tsunami hit.
However, it is not proven yet.
Rajesh, Gillville,
The Chinese are such a great people...even in the midst of a truly terrible earthquake, they still go ahead with the Olympics!
No wonder they are the longest continuous soverign people on planet earth!
China, my hat is off to you!
Pauline, Brooklyn, NY
But we should know earthquake is still unpredictable at the moment. So for no one geologist managed to predict a earthquake in practice, remember the recent quake near Lincolnshire in February? even BGS couldn't know it in advanced. All we could do now is to pray for people in Sichuan!
Enoch, Leicester, UK
chinese are strong and will rebuild everything.
My best wishes for china
Saudi Arabia
Mohammad, Gold Coast , Australia
There is no absolute way to predict such a thing and be accurate. If any one person knew the exact date of the earthquake, how would one prepare a whole country without causeing mass histaria?
Ricco, Redlands,
Useful earthquake predictions are not possible with modern science and technology, unfortunately.
Maybe in the near future someone will discover a reliable forecasting tool, but in the meantime we will have to live in earthquake-resistant buildings and prepare for the next big one.
Tim, Melbourne, Australia