Robert Cole
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Remember tech stocks? Ten years ago, with the dot-com boom in full swing, pretty much everyone was being swept along what was then quaintly called the information superhighway. When the stock market values of technology companies abruptly fell off a cliff early into the new millennium so much money was lost, and so much egg was splashed on so many faces, that investors seemed barely able to countenance shares in computer companies, let alone buy them.
Rehabilitation, however, has come. Results this week from Apple, of iPod fame, delighted its supporters and, helped by assumptions that the company can continue to produce gadgets that are as fashionable and attractive as they are useful, the shares are back at, or near, record highs. Microsoft may yet undermine notions that it is a company fast withering in the heat of its own past glories. The launch of yet another operating system, Windows 7, promises to make up for the inadequacies that many saw in its overhyped Vista program.
Here in the UK, Autonomy is demanding renewed investor attention. Near the zenith of the dot-com mania, the software company founded in 1996 on the back of a brilliant research thesis by Cambridge-educated Mike Lynch, floated on the stock market. Shares fetched £35 back in the heady days but as the chart shows the market found itself unable to ascribe anything like that value to the company. Indeed, Autonomy joined the infamous 90 per cent club, the unfortunate band of companies that lost at least nine tenths of their value.
Unlike so many tech peers, and other members of the 90 per cent club, Autonomy has survived and thrived. The day-to-day corporate story, in fact, could scarcely be more different from the impression given by the share price chart. Revenues and profits, far from falling like an untethered brick in a mine shaft, have risen in an impressively steady fashion.
Between 1999 and 2000 Autonomy tripled its annual revenues, from $22 million to $65 million, and turned losses of $5 million into profits of $13 million. Revenues and profits then trod water for a couple of years but by 2006 Autonomy’s turnover was $250 million and it was making $50 million of profits. Third-quarter results published this week suggest that in 2009 Autonomy will sell roughly $700 million of software and turn in taxable profits of $200 million, maybe more.
What does it do? Autonomy develops software that unscrambles information and makes connections that are important but not necessarily obvious. As the world has sped along the information superhighway vast quantities of data have been created, collected and stored. Unlike the old days, however, when papers were sorted by clerks and kept neatly in filing cabinets, the quantities of new information, and the increase in the number of sources of that data, has made the filing process vastly more difficult. Yet without proper filing, information cannot be found; if it cannot be found it cannot be used; and if it cannot be used it has no value and may as well not exist. Autonomy seeks to bridge the gap: and contracts from organisations including Nasa, the NHS and Nestlé show that clients appreciate the value in unscrambling information.
Although Autonomy has worked to refine and improve its software over the past decade, and convinced legions of customers to buy from it, the essential story has not changed. Its 2004 annual report featured the slogan “understanding the hidden 80 per cent” alongside a picture of an iceberg. The slogan and image still sum up the essence of the company.
Nor does Autonomy make magical claims for its techno-wizardry. Amazing though it is in many ways, Autonomy’s software is no more than an automated way of doing the work of flesh-and-blood clerks. People could do the job better if they had endless patience and were not prone to making occasional errors.
It is intriguing to note that the share price of 2000 may not have been quite as far from reality as it once seemed. Those that sent the price sky-high were certainly looking too far into the future, and by being too aggressive on price lumbered the company with an unfortunate burden in terms of its reputation. But the more the share price climbs the closer the original fans of Autonomy approach vindication. It may be that they were just too far-sighted.
Some investors will rightly wonder whether they have missed the boat with Autonomy — and Apple. The perceived importance of inspirational leaders — Lynch in the case of Autonomy and Steve Jobs at Apple — adds a layer of vulnerability. So does the fact that both companies show no sign of wanting to pay dividends. Perhaps by clinging to the notion that dividends are a sign of weakness — whereas the implication of being able to reward investors in this way is a sign of great strength — Apple and Autonomy give investors no comfort on this score.
That said, these look like good companies and the potential rewards are such that both deserve a place in the private investor’s portfolio. Microsoft shares, coming from a lower base and helped by support from dividends, are worthy of full consideration too.
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