David Budworth
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The past six months have been a fantastic time to be invested in the world's stock markets - if you or your fund manager placed money in the right assets that is.
Emerging markets in particular have had a spectacular run. Since the beginning of March the MSCI Emerging Markets index is up 65 per cent spurred on by great returns from the BRIC economies: Brazil (71 per cent), Russia (104 per cent), India (68 per cent) and China (48 per cent).
For most of the upturn fund managers have been cawing about how emerging markets are the best place to invest - for quick profits as well as short term returns.
But which managers have called the recovery right, managing not only to match the increase in the MSCI Emerging Markets index - a standard benchmark - but better it? And which have been caught out, by either backing the wrong companies, the wrong markets or being too cautious and keeping too much in cash?
Research by Morningstar for Timesonline reveals that two out of three managers have managed to match or better the index since the beginning of March. Not bad, given that over time only one in three managers tends to outperform the benchmark.
The top performer, up an incredible 91 per cent, is Baillie Gifford Emerging Markets, followed by M&G Global Emerging Markets (88 per cent) and Neptune Emerging Markets (85 per cent). All three have been aggressive supporters of the emerging markets story, and their enthusiasm appears to have paid off.
Among the laggards are First State Global Emerging Markets Leaders (by returning 55 per cent few investors will be shedding tears, although it is still a long way short of the best performers). Clerical Medical Emerging Market Focus also disappointed, up 57 per cent. But the biggest loser, by a long way, is Somerset Global Emerging Markets (34 per cent), a fund which launched earlier this year. It has not been an auspicious start.
What can we learn from these figures? Any investment adviser worth his or her salt will tell you that you shouldn't make decisions based on short-term performance.
The past six months have been exceptional: few foresaw how quickly and strongly the markets would bounce. The magnificent rally of the past six months has been fuelled by cheap government money pumped into the financial system. That is not going to go on forever - in fact it looks as if the tap could be turned off quite soon. The managers that have come off badly in the rally might perform much better once the markets calm down.
However, if your manager has failed to beat the index (the other funds that fall into this category are Martin Currie Emerging Markets, First State Global Emerging Markets, Gartmore Emerging Markets Opportunities, Santander Global Emerging Markets Fund of Funds, JPM Emerging Markets and Lincoln Emerging Markets Trust) it is worth looking back on their longer term record and asking, is this just a short term blip or part of a longer-term problem?
Also ask yourself how the managers sell themselves. Do they present themselves as aggressive stockpickers, always buying and selling? If they do, perhaps you ought to worry.
Or do they describe themselves as more steady-as-they-go investors who stick to their positions over the long term? If, in the past, these long-term bets have paid off perhaps you have no need for concern.
Short-term performance should never on its own be a cue to buy or sell, but it should encourage you to question how your manager makes money and whether you are comfortable with his or her approach.
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