Pity next year’s school leavers. Record numbers are expected to apply for university, but some may discover that the course of their choice is already full.

Tens of thousands of potential students have been rejected this year by universities, which are now overflowing with freshers.

The recession prompted unprecedented numbers to apply for courses this autumn, allowing admissions tutors to pick the best and to raise entry standards.

Many of those who failed to secure a place this summer were encouraged to take a gap year, or retake A levels, then apply for degrees starting in 2010. In some cases the Government contributed toward the cost of the year out, on the understanding that they would resume their studies next year.

This means that teenagers leaving school next summer may find that universities are clogged up by last year’s cohort. They could also find the bar being raised again.

Ministers capped the number of students that universities could recruit this year, and some institutions could be fined for taking on more than their quota. This is because, despite the introduction of tuition fees, the taxpayer heavily subsidises each place at university.

It is extremely unlikely that the economy will have recovered sufficiently by next year for the public purse to bear the cost of creating university places for all those who want to study for a degree. The stampede to become an undergraduate may be exacerbated by the tuition fees review, which is due to start in the next few weeks. It is expected to recommend lifting the £3,225-a-year cap to £5,000 or even £7,000 and could come into force in autumn 2011.

The predicted mismatch between supply and demand is trouble for the winner of next year’s election. By the summer it may no longer by Labour’s problem.

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