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The refusal of the Government to allow the electorate a say on the Lisbon treaty has been a democratic outrage. The Government has veered unconvincingly between the argument that the Lisbon treaty does no more than rearrange the furniture and the wholly contrary claim that Britain’s vital national interest is in peril if ratification does not proceed. Yet, to suggest that, just because the words “anthem”, “flag” and “motto” have been deleted, the Lisbon treaty differs substantively from the original constitutional document is not just sophistry, it is an insult to our intelligence.
The Lisbon process has been put to the people on three occasions and on three occasions it has been rejected. The French and the Dutch declined the offer of the first constitutional treaty. The Irish declined the offer of the second, only to be told that “no” was an incorrect answer. Arrogantly certain of its own right to prevail, the political class barely seems to care what the people think of the project on which it is embarked. This has been yet another episode in the long and sorry drama in which the European political elite looks down on the people de haut en bas, to adopt the language of its dominant nation.
However, although it needs to be noted that this has been a victory for the elite over the people, that victory is now emphatic. The constitutional court in the Czech Republic has thrown the case out and President Klaus, against his better judgment, has put his seal on the deal. The Lisbon treaty will now come into effect from December 1. No matter how galling it is to accept, in politics when the facts change you have to change your strategy.
This is exactly what David Cameron has now signalled he will do. The question of a referendum on the Lisbon treaty is closed. There have been a few thunderous voices off, from the implacable wing of the Conservative Party, and no doubt there will be a few more. But, in truth, there is no great benefit, and plenty of cost, in trying to revoke ratification and Mr Cameron has carried the great majority of his party to that conclusion. At his party conference the Conservative leader chose to allow events to unfold, rather than bounce his party into a new position. This lacked political courage but showed plain political common sense. Mr Cameron does seem to have minimised the havoc that might otherwise have ensued in his party.
However, matters will not necessarily rest there, as the Conservative formula, menacing and vague at the same time, has it. Mr Cameron will now face demands, from within his party, to pledge to renegotiate some of the terms of Britain’s relationship with the European Union. Once those powers, whatever they are, have been repatriated, that should then be put to the country as a substitute for the referendum that was denied on the Lisbon treaty.
This is a trap that Mr Cameron would do well to avoid. The repatriation of powers after the fact is fraught with complexity. There are, no doubt, powers that we might gladly see returned from the European Union to these shores. There may well be opt-outs from existing clauses that would be useful to have. But a calculating politician needs to pledge only what is practicable. The sort of changes that might feasibly be delivered are unlikely to warrant a referendum.
Far better to use the prestige of the office of British prime minister to win the argument that sovereignty rests ultimately with the people. The passage of the Lisbon treaty has widened the democratic deficit of the European Union. In every gathering of the European elite it would be salutary if proceedings were disrupted by the reminder that the European Union exists to serve its people and not the other way round.
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