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Signor Prodi insists that he leads “a cohesive team, not a collection of individuals”, but the line-up pulls Italy further to the left than voters expected, and the chaotic training session hardly points to a winning performance. Policy on Iraq will provide an important early test of discipline. Signor Prodi’s plan is a phased withdrawal of Italy’s troops, in agreement with the Iraqis, who are begging him to move slowly. The Communists and Greens are demanding an immediate, unilateral withdrawal, regardless of the impact on Iraq. When the vote on refinancing the military mission comes up next month, they will try to force his hand.
Signor Prodi could, and should, call the Left’s bluff on this issue; they no more want the Government to fall than he does. But compromise is more his style. The new Government’s “first commitment”, he says, “will be to rebuild a spirit of solidarity and consensus”. In Italy’s divided condition, to wait upon consensus is like waiting for Godot. Most Italians agree on the need for effective government; they agree on almost nothing else.
A “no gain without pain” message would have been more to the point, because pain is unavoidable. Italy’s huge accumulated burden of public debt will force it eventually to bring the nation’s finances under better control. Without a sharp revival of growth, Italy could slide even further into the red. The communists are dead set against further privatisation, the most obvious source of revenue. The unions will not tolerate efficiency reforms that could cut the costs of public services.
To this mission near-impossible is added the problem of Italy’s flagging competitiveness. It will revive only with radical and necessarily controversial reforms to tackle restrictive practices in the professions and tame Italy’s stroppy public sector unions. But almost all these measures are anathema to the Left. Ex-communists or communists control the labour portfolio and most of the big spending ministries; and the Left has a grip on would-be reformers because two defections in the Senate would bring the Government down. Yet the more terrified this Government is of offending voters, the faster will it lose their support. Small wonder that Silvio Berlusconi left office with a cheery arrivederci – see you later, not goodbye.
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