Forget speculation about an early general election. It is not going to happen, nor should it. Unlike 14 months ago, this chatter is not coming from the Brown circle. The official line that Gordon Brown is concentrating on the recession is obviously in part to avoid a repeat of the damaging Grand Old Duke of York act of October last year. But his caution is more than just self-righteousness. It also makes political and electoral sense.

The economic crisis has boosted Labour’s ratings. The Brown bounce is real and sustained. But it is also conditional. It is Mr Brown as the man for the recession. As Populus has shown, David Cameron is ahead when voters are asked who is the best leader for after the next election. And the Tories are still in the lead, at above 40 per cent in virtually all polls.

The case for an early election is that Labour could exploit the crisis with a “doctor’s mandate” appeal: the leader you can trust, the need for fresh authority to take hard decisions, etc. But that could be very risky. The dynamics of a campaign are unpredictable, as February 1974 – when the Tories narrowly lost the “Who governs Britain?” election – showed. Moreover, the impact of the downturn on jobs is becoming daily more apparent. Voters could easily say “Who landed us in this mess?” rather than “Trust Gordon”.

Nonetheless, many senior Tories are jittery about an early election at a time when they are still trying to rethink and represent a fresh approach.

Mr Brown also needs much longer to make a credible reelection case; he would be taking far too much on trust over the next six months. He has to show a way out of recession. That is why the key to the PreBudget Report will be the link between the short-term fiscal stimulus and policy after the recession. Alan Duncan, the Shadow Business Secretary, made the point this week: “Temporary measures funded by borrowing and lasting tax increases will prove detrimental in the long term.” To reassure the markets, the Government has signalled an important policy change. Until now, efficiency savings have been reallocated to “frontline” public services, and they will be used to finance counter-recession measures over the next two years. But from 2011-12, savings will reduce total planned spending, and hence public borrowing. On Monday Alistair Darling will revise downwards the Treasury’s assumption on future spending growth to below the current 1.9 per cent for 2011-12 and 2012-13. This would be very tight across government, while throwing the spending restraint argument back on to the Tories.

Mr Brown wants to show both that he is leading Britain out of recession and that the public finances are heading back to a healthy state. But even to claim that Prudence is returning will be a tall order. Mr Brown needs time. So spring 2010 still looks the most likely election date.

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