David Aaronovitch
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A the beginning of 2006 a series of meetings between Tony Blair, Gordon Brown and their entourages, began to break down. “All he would say,” Mr Blair reported of his Chancellor, “is: ‘When are you going to eff off out of here?'.” “What is to be gained,” demanded Ed Miliband, one of Mr Brown's aides, of Mr Blair on another occasion, “by you staying on for a further six to nine months?”
I don't use these examples - which I believe to be true - to try to demonstrate the saintliness of Tony and the awfulness of Gordon. One of history's more dismal tasks will be to try to discern the degree of Mr Blair's own responsibility for his party's current problems less than a year after his departure. Perhaps longevity itself is the culprit, and it may well be that no government will ever serve more than a couple of terms ever again before it becomes the impossible lightning rod for every transient discontent. But that is an essay of its own.
The point was to illustrate, yet again, how much Mr Brown wanted to be Prime Minister, thought that he would be better at it than Mr Blair, knew that he would be better at it than anyone else and believed and desired all this - presumably - for some purpose. But it is (and I am not the first person to say it) a seeming mystery as to what that purpose was.
“Not Flash, just Gordon” was the way that the Labour Party was playing Mr Brown's lack of interactive charisma in those far-off honeymoon days of botched bombs and middling floods. What he may not possess in the pleb-pleasing department, it was averred, he more than compensated for in the grit-your-teeth-and-run-it division. Indeed, as the economies of the West came under pressure it could be argued that a long-bearded ten-year Chancellor was better placed than any number of fragrant Fauntleroys to lead us once again to the sunny uplands.
Any illusion I had that Mr Brown could do this was destroyed by Alistair Darling's emergency re-Budget the week before last. To deny for so long that there was a problem with people losing from the removal of the 10p tax band, subsequently to be forced to alter course as a consequence of backbench panic, to spend £2.7 billion that previously you hadn't had and finally to dress all that up as a response to the economic downturn, was to utterly contaminate the Brown brand. Not only not charismatic, the PM could no longer be defended as prudent or competent, but rather blown every which way by expedience.
Now every cop, nurse, teacher, be they ne'er so well paid compared with 1997, believes - with the abetment of Gadarene Labour MPs - that they too, can get something from the Treasury if they just open their mouths wide enough and scream and scream till everyone else is sick. Every super-polluting motorist, anachronistic post-office campaigner, anti-polyclinic GP and special interest placardeer must think that time is on their side. For the moment the Opposition will be doing nothing to disabuse them. All David Cameron's toughness is being reserved for hard targets like knife criminals and young spongers.
And to what purpose does Mr Brown, who wanted it all so much, hang on? Last autumn, even as the original ur-dither was being conjured into existence, it began to appear that Labour post-Blair was being tricksier and more dangerously populist than when Mr Blair had been at the helm. It was almost as though Labour was seeking to make up in slippery policy what it had lost in telegenic charm. There was the unnecessary and expensive reduction in inheritance tax, the unnecessary and damaging levy on non-doms, there was the selling of ID cards as being about foreigners, there was “British jobs for British workers”, there was the backward-looking ridiculing of David Cameron as an upper-class twit, there was the implementation of the pointless points system for immigrants. I wrote at the time: “Bribes, mild xenophobia and snideries don't add up to charting a clear direction of travel for the country.”
The result at Crewe & Nantwich - which was in line with recent opinion polls - may not have been altered much by Labour's anti-toff antics, but the party's tactics were symptomatic of fear and an absence of vision. The defeat was always likely, but the question was whether Labour could articulate an idea of why - in two years' time - the voters of Crewe might care to change their minds. What kind of world would Britain have to make its way in, and how might the country adjust to this challenge? Beyond the million irritations of ordinary life, what did the Prime Minister see as the way ahead? Were we to be a country open to trade, competitive, highly educated, flexible, a magnet to the talented and motivated from around the world? Or were we to settle back in our old habit of complacent but grumbling decline?
I'd say, right now, that the decline has it. Voters are to be treated like idiots, so every proposal to the PM from Labour sources seems to be freighted with chronic short-termism. For example, Mr Brown is advised to save the closing post offices, meaning their demise will just have to be put off to another time, when the losses are higher and the costs are greater. The same is true with not taxing gas guzzlers - it will simply have to be reattempted at some even less promising moment. Climate change hasn't stopped because credit is tight.
At the end of a Jeremiad such as this, readers may expect the writer to demand a leadership challenge and to nominate a trio or so of bright young things who could take over and, by so doing, effect a transformation. It's easily done, of course, and that's because it's rubbish. Any leader coming into office before 2010 (as Prime Minister, I remind you, not Leader of the Opposition) would have to make Barack Obama look like Cecil Parkinson. I have absolutely no idea whether Labour possesses anyone sufficiently remarkable.
No. Labour has a short time to think hard about what it wants to offer the people of Britain, and how to offer it. During that interregnum it would probably be better for Gordon Brown to continue and, in the knowledge of his likely electoral defeat, to begin to lead. In so doing he may actually render a greater service to the party he says he loves than his predecessor eventually managed to do. He may just as well not eff off.

David Aaronovitch is a writer, broadcaster and commentator on international politics and the media. He writes for The Times Comment page on Tuesdays. He has previously written for The Guardian, The Observer and The Independent, winning numerous accolades, including Columnist of the Year 2003 and the 2001 Orwell prize for journalism. He has appeared on the satirical TV current affairs programme Have I Got News For You and made radio broadcasts on historical topics
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I don't think posterity will have any truck with the question of Tony Blair's culpability in all this. He has none. The current mess is entirely a product of Gordon's watch, though those who sought to undermine Blair would of course for their own purposes prefer to have us believe otherwise.
Paul Enever, Norwich, Norfolk
Spend spend spend - as ye sow so shall ye reap! The Labour Party is bereaft of ideas other than splurging our money on unreformed public services, and now the public piggy bank is bare.
Arnold Ward, Weybridge, Surrey, UK
Leaders are born, Brown's refusal to challenge his junior and virtual protege in 1994 proved his unsuitability to be PM - he bottled it. The economy is only going to get worse in the next two years - a decisive leader would call an autumn election hoping for victory or a hung parliament.
Tony Gee, London,
You only need a leader when you are fighting a general election. There was no obvious successor to Blair. Labour has done what it had come in to do, high taxing, high public expenditure in a declining economy. This is indefensible and no labour leader could win in these circumstances.
mike lincoln, wakefield,
Now people have less and less money due to constant thieving by Labour they are beginning to wake up the destructive stupidity of 'green taxes' on our own economy, No other country on the planet is crucifying tax payers for the religion of global warming.
David Thijm, Stourbridge, UK
Karen Wright because it shows his mental strengh that he recovered losing an eye and a child.
Bob Murray , London, UK
THIS IS NOT THE LABOUR PARTY! It is New Labour invented by Tony Blair in the 90s to win an election at any cost. The true Labour Party represented the hard working class of this country. New Labour supports the shirkers, liars, conmen and cheats who will either give them votes or financial gain!!
mike henley, taunton, ENGLAND
The trouble with Aaronovitch' analysis, is that he expects the country to suffer another 2 years of a weak government and an even weaker PM. The obvious alternative is for Brown to call an election this year, preferably in September and before the conference season starts. He will lose, but so what!
Mike Ganoes, London, UK
David - Join the campaign for electoral reform. If the Lib Dems approached the unions and CBI now for support of progressive g'ment no Tory or Labour majority will get elected again to the general improvement of the country and the issues can then be discussed and tackled on a rational basis
ROD WRIGHT, BROMLEY BR1 2AG, uk
If it were not so serious, I could really enjoy Brown's ineptitude.
Morgan Chenneour, Amersham, Bucks
GB and NuLab are here to stay. Every which way but win! That is the strategy and UKplc will vote for NuLab at the next election. Who cares about the people and the country as long as NuLab are in power to control and micro manage, that is all that counts. Oops as long as NuLab MP's are looked after!
YT, London, UK
The a world-wide problem.. the parties aren't proposing to voter the quality leaders one could expect a few decades ago...
Rui, Lisbon, Portugal
At least Gordon Brown is at the helm to reap the rewards of his 10 years as Chancellor presiding over an economic boom. I think he has one objective that is obvious - to be PM at all costs. Then again that's easy as we are paying - Northern Rock; 10p tax give-away.
Mac, Barcelona, Spain
Ian, London. I would, at least we new he was a pirate.
David Leslie, Perth, Scotland
Gordon Brown's was raised on old Marxist dogma and he's psychologically stuck in that dead rut, unable to re-invent himself. Like the Soviet Union he's history, but only he, doesn't know it.
Henry MacGowan, Glasgow, Scotland
At long last Mr Aaronovitch seems to have discovered what readers of this newspaper have been telling him for years - that Bottler Brown is, and always has been, a total disaster both for the country and for the Labour Party. Better late than never Mr Aaronovitch!
Bill Holmes, Derby, England
Actually, climate change HAS stopped, at least for the time being. It has not got any warmer since 1998. "Respect the facts', as the Royal Society would say.
Frank Upton, Solihull,
Brown wanted the raw power of being PM without ever thinking the matter through properly. Just cast around and you will find that is a trend shared by many senior figures in this government, which is now full of intellectual lightweights,
Robert , Hull., East Yorks.,
Logevity is the cuprit indeeed! Confusion, lack of direction and the overwhelming urge to do anything to stay in power. It happened to the Tories after two terms and now its deja vu all over again. Thw challenge is to make the "two terms and your out" concept a reality. Who can help them out?
John Lancaster, Brussels,
THE PROBLEM WITH LABOUR..
Is it not obvious? They...just don't give a damn!
Garth Strong, Los Angeles, USA
I don't shed any tears for Labour, but I have to say that David Aaronovitch has done a brilliant analysis of the pickle the Government finds itself in. But it is time for a change of direction - we need more prudent and less wasteful governance to cope with the bad economic times ahead.
Richard, Worcester, England
Malcolm McLean
The problem about increasing taxes and reducing spending is that it will reduce consumer demand - and tip the cuntry further into recession.
Governments should reduce taxes and increase spending in recession - isn't that what the 10p tax volte face was about?
John Wood, Hull, GBR
It's clear Brown can't turn it round but why would any good candidate want to take over now anyway? The party will be in turmoil, the economy will be in turmoil, voters will regard them as yet another leader without a democratic mandate.
http://seemslikeagoodidea.blogspot.com
Brockley Nick, London,
Sorry. Wasn't Gordon Brown supposed to clean up Tony Blair's mess - at least that's what we were told. Now we learn, from others, that another person (Milliband?) is going to have to clean up Gordon's mess. Does it not occur to someone that this is a collective mess wrought by Labour government?
Mark, Berkhamsted,
Meeting the challenges of future food and energy provision for the UK requires a complete change of captains and crews at Westminster, Whitehall and Townhall. Or a Churchill. Where is he ? Where are they ? What is the action plan? Or wil it be tax and spin? The rest is trivia.
Don, Leeds, Yorkshire
The key to understanding Brown is not his moral compass, an
unreliable and defective device, but the lethal combination he displays of naked ambition and moral and political
cowardice. He bankrolled the Iraq war, supported Blair, and has never repudiated his part in that foreign policy disaster.
Peter Curran, Kirkliston,
Like many 'leaders' before him Gordon Brown lacks the essential ingredient for a legitimate representative - he has no mandate from the electorate but only the backing of party cronies. One more reason to back dirdem.org for democratic change.
Heinz Geyer, London,
Scotland doesn't need Labour or the Tories! Brown is an uncharismatic, insipid politician and needs to go! Tony Blair was much more preferable and I say that as a staunch Nationalist!
Bryce, Edinburgh, Scotland
Brown will not clean up the mess, Brown has never cleaned up a mess. Even when the mess was of his making he got out of the way and let somebody else clean it up, then tried to take the credit. Brown, frankly, doesn't have a clue.
David Leslie, Perth, Scotland
"The PM has lost an eye..." So what? Captain Pugwash only had one eye and I wouldn't trust him to run the country.
Ian, London, UK
Iraq, betrayal over the EU referendum, uncontrolled immigration, gridlock, rising violent crime, louts on every street corner, illiterate 11 year olds, filthy hospitals, erosion of civility and civil liberties, pensions plunder, tax tax, meddle, waste and spin. These are not "transient discontents".
Kevin, Leeds,
Just bring back Tony Blair for MP even though he is now a non-MP.
Gordon Brown could then go back to the Treasury
There is a precedent for this.
In Nov 1963 Lord Home dropped the title and stood at a specially set-up bye-elction at Kinross so that he could become both MP and Prime Minister.
Michael Blatchford, Bath , UK
Brown has always played on his great intelligence, his clever tax wheezes, giving away whilst taking more. This worked in boom times and wasn't difficult to do. Ask the question where has all the money gone Gordon? wasted on higher salaries and pensions in the public sector. He has no answers!
John, Manchester,
Punitive UK tax measures on 6 year old Ford Mondeo's will have absolutely zero effect on global warming. The impact on Brown's increasingly tenuous hold on power will, however , be a lot more effective.
The electorate are not as stupid as Brown would have his stupefied cabinet believe.
Digby James, Windsor, Berks
These shortcoming were being hatched under Blair, the difference is that Blair WAS 'tricksier' than Brown. Not Mr Bean but Corporal Jones, "Don't panic, don't panic". Not steel but the detritus at the top of the melt; NuLabour is a metaphor for a simile inside an enigma disappearing up a rope!
Malcolm Turner, Alsager, England
The emporer has no clothes.........................
Politicians should realise that people have lives to live and just want a government that can manage basic services for a reasonable amount of tax.
You've just got to ask - whats reasonable?? not the present amount of tax thats for sure.
Rob, letchworth,
Now they want more pay...! We want Post Ofices AND cost savings, cars AND little environmental impact. It's like being told by an expensive tax-reduction adviser to just earn less! The Government is paid to solve problems, not lazily eliminate them. If they can't do that job they should leave.
Graham Rounce, London, England
"Gordon Brown must clean up the mess"
Gordon Brown is a messer....NOT a cleaner. It's important to know the difference. A cleaner may clean up a mess, but a messer will make a greater mess trying to clean up the mess that he just made...or any other mess.
Great Britain needs a Great Cleaner!
Garth Strong, Los Angeles, USA
Gordon Brown has not "lost an eye" - How ridiculous to say that.
He has lost the vision in one eye.
What has this to do with the above story anyway?
Karen Wright, Wallasey, UK
"original ur-"? I wonder what Aaronovitch thinks "ur" means...
David McGregor, Fitzroy, VIC, Australia
These people conclusively proved their arrogance and political inepitude last October when they raised David Cameron to preferred Prime Minister status in the space of a week. Any Blairite would be a better replacement.
Lucy Diamond, Melbourne, Australia
This is the first time that Aaronovitch has got it right - ever - in his analysis of what is wrong with Labour and why the Conservatives will win the next General Election.
Keep up the good work David!
Diablo, Chesterfield, England
Can't someone string together a couple of jokes a day for him to roll out and keep the punters happy?
Not a big ask, surely
mike, London,
The PM has lost an eye, and a child. I think he has great mental strength to recover from this blow.
Bob Murray , London, UK
As many of us suspected at the time, Brown was determined to have the top job because he thought it is his right, not because he had high blown ideas of what to do with it. That makes his petulance during Blair's tenure even more astonishing.
History and the electorate will judge him accordingly
Paul Owen, Birmingham, UK
Gordon needs to go, he's bad for Labour, but more importantly he's bad for Britain. Labour need a new leader, but David Miliband needs to hang back and avoid becoming Labour's William Hague. Miliband is a prime minister this country deserves to have, and I say that as a Tory!
Jack, London, England
Gordon Brown is wavering about in a vacuum. He can't go back to being Old Labour because that has been destroyed. He can't don the clothes of New Labour because they only suited Blair and don't fit Brown. So what is his political phillosophy and that of Labour now: it has none.
J.Couzens, London, England
Julian Williams says it all. But lets not just blame the Labour Party - blame the people who voted them into power not the first time, but the second and third!
Richard, Plymouth,
His first act was to give away responsibility for managing the economy to the BofE, his second action as was to raid private pension funds. From then on it was all irresponsibility - spend spend spend on the public sector, keep as much as possible off the books and mortgage our future. Now he is PM
Julian Williams, Narberth, UK
Thank goodness for that then - so we can wave goodbye and good riddance to New Labour for once and all in 2010 !!!
Ian Payne, WALSALL,
Excellent article.
Andy, London,
Wow, have you seen the light ! But since climate change has been around forever it will not stop just because people alter their ways. As far as 'gas guzzlers' are concerned why don't politicians just ban the things, anything else is just tax and bigotry.
roger sykes, christchurch,
NO! Let Brown stay the carnage is entertaining.
Zen, London,
Bring back that guy from "The Northeast" what sis name,he that ran a book shop before being put in charge of the health service.
Management,none of Labours team know what that means,good intentions, yes,but in 11 years all we have had is shrugged shoulders,and we have "invested" x Billion."Invested"
david, Barnsley, England
Taxes need to go up and spending needs to come down. Partly Mr Brown's fault for spending too much on the NHS, partly unavoidable world shortages of food and fuel. All he needs to do is to acknowledge that and the political landscape will be transformed.
Malcolm McLean, Bradford, UK
Labour's real shortcoming is not in politics but in management. For the last decade, Labour has used taxes as a temporary substitute for problem solving. They shut their critics up by boasting about their spending. Now that the wheels are coming off, we are left with Old Labour. As always.
jon livesey, Sunnyvale, CA/USA