Anatole Kaletsky: Commentary
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Yesterday’s astonishing rejection by Republican Congressmen of what was presented as a bipartisan agreement on the $700 billion bank rescue package, will surely not be the last word on the issue.
In one form or another, the package will surely be passed in the next few days, since the alternative would be the failure of every leading bank in America, the inability of the US Government to honour its guarantees to retail savers and the bankruptcy of many large US corporations, probably including General Motors and Ford. For the rest of the world, particularly for Britain, a definitive collapse of the US bailout would mean nationalisation of all leading banks, insurance companies and other financial institutions – and that unthinkable international impact is another reason why we can be fairly certain that a bailout of some kind will be passed quite soon.
The interesting questions raised by last night’s fiasco are: how did the US Government get into such an appalling mess; and what will be the consequences of this disaster for US politics? The answers to both these questions come back to Hank Paulson, the former Wall Street banker and incompetent US Treasury Secretary. Had it not been for Mr Paulson the bailout would probably never have been needed. What made it necessary was a three-stage sequence of blunders. The first began when Mr Paulson decided, for largely political reasons, to wipe out the private shareholders in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, two businesses which he and many Republican politicians regarded as crypto-socialist incubi in the American body politic. The enormous – and unnecessary – losses suffered by shareholders of Fannie Mae triggered the first stage of the financial crisis, starting on September 8. He then aggravated the crisis by deliberately bankrupting Lehman and then seizing the assets of AIG.
These unnecessary decisions spread the crisis to every other financial institution. Even worse was Mr Paulson’s second set of political blunders, starting with his sudden announcement last week of a $700 billion bailout on which he had consulted no one. The arrogance of his assumption that the Congress would write him a cheque was matched by his failure to come up with any coherent description of how he planned to use this money to help the banks. Under these circumstances, it was hardly surprising that he faced congressional opposition, which led to his third blunder. Mr Paulson’s only hope of getting his money was to give unequivocal support to the Democratic Party leaders in Congress who were willing to write a plan themselves. But just as this was nearing completion, Mr Paulson allowed John McCain to parachute himself into the negotiations and attempt to take credit for saving the economy. Had Mr Paulson warned Mr McCain away, the package would probably have been passed already. But by bowing to party-political demands for a Republican say in the package, Mr Paulson opened himself to last night’s sabotage.
Now there seems to be only one option: for Mr Paulson and Mr Bush to plead for the Democrats to pass the bailout. In exchange, the Democrats could demand that Mr Paulson and Mr Bush denounce their Republican colleagues and Mr McCain for irresponsibly trying to sabotage the US economy. If the Democrats play their cards well, Mr Paulson may have no choice.
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The US Treasury is empty, gutted by our President and his disasterous programs including the cost of one unjustified war. Then he borrowed trillions abroad to keep spending. We the people have had enough. We say NO to borrowing billions more to rescue rich, greedy Wall Street from its own folly.
Clintona Jackson Hare, Morristown, USA
the 'writer,' is simply not in tune with reality. NONE of the things he predicted - an i'm a LIBERAL Democrat, by the way ... none of those things will happen:
. Banks won't be nationalized in England
. The Bank of America and Wells Fargo will not go away, in the States. Unscientific, hysteric.
allan cerf, Sunnyvale, United States
Bail Out Safeguards Proposed
AZ Rep John Shadegg called for the suspension of the mark to market accounting rule that requires mortgage-backed securities to be valued at fire-sale prices. That would help prevent the current crisis from reoccurring, & an increase in the FDIC's $ 100,000 limit.
Diane Earl, Griswold, USA
You forgot about the 95 Democrats, roughly 40% of the Democrats in Congress who voted against this bailout. You also didn't mention the fact that the treasury secretary and the Republicans tried to get tighter controls on Fannie Mae and Freddit Mac back in 2006 to only be rebuffed by Democrats.
R.Bowdiddly, Oklahoma, USA
Americans are angry and the question is whether they are angry enough to fall on a sword to make the point that government needs to listen to the people they swore to represent... reps seem only willing to listen and act on constituents concerns during an election year.
Dayfydd, Monmouth, Wales
Joseph, New York City- As for your response the Democrats could have passed the bill on their own. Then why were the House GOP there this past weekend trying to get a concensus wasting everyone's time just so they can vote no? It's obvious, they just want to be re-elected for their next term.
Ann, Pasadena,
Can anyone believe that the top executives of these companies will give up any of their compensation for the lousy job they have done. And this bail-out will not affect them because they have contracts which the bail out will pay for. How hard are they being hit.??
Mike Rachwalski, BROOKSVILLE, FL, usa
Why not nationalise all banks and financial institutions, free market capitalism has screwed the economy in spades.
George, Bolton, UK
Normally, Anatole get is right. But in this case he makes one huge mistake when he writes: "Had Mr Paulson warned Mr McCain away, the package would probably have been passed already." Speaker Pelosi wanted bipartisan cover. The House Repubs were not going to give it to her. McCain or no McCain.
Eric, Mt View, USA
It seems the animals have taken over at the zoo both in the US and in Europe.
Politicians and banks have enjoyed the growth of borrowing and the bubble of house prices, regardless of the risks.
Now there must be uncertainty as to the value of any asset anywhere.
Capitalisms' worst moment ??
David Nammory, Liverpool,
"rejection by Republican Congressmen"
Did you look at the breakdown of the vote? This was a bi-partisan rejection. Yes, only 40% of the Republicans voted for this bill, but Ms Pelosi didn't get 95 of her party mates (almost a third of the Dem) to join her. Shame on her. We Democrats deserve better.
Christopher Reich, CIncinnati, United States
The Democrats claim that the US economy will fall without a bailout. If they really believe that, why don't they just pass the bailout? What type of politician would predict doom and then wait for "Mr Paulson and Mr Bush to plead for the Democrats to pass the bailout" before taking action.
Joseph, New York City, USA
Bof! from France
If the Treasury takes monetary creation control away from the private Federal Reserve, and again prints the Lincoln green back dollar silver certificates, and distributes them, crisis will be avoided. If Banks fail, non-profit Credit Unions will simply take their place.
victor compton, Cherbourg, France
You may or may not like Mr Paulson. But the emotive language employed against him by Mr Kaletsky ("deliberately bankrupting Lehman", "allowed John McCain to parachute himself in...") seems purposely designed to divert attention from his own breathtakingly complacent analyses these last few months.
John Polenski, London, UK
When this happens to a third world country they're told to privatise everything, remove all tariffs, stop public spending and devalue their currencies. Hasn't the US govt. just approved a $700,billion defence budget for the year?
becop, lowestoft, uk
Your solution to the problem is exactly why it hasnt happened. The election is confounding good sense. Nobody wants to be seen to be supporting the bail-out for fear of losing their jobs.
G Townsend, Elk Grove, USA
IF the banks had not loaned unreasonable amounts of money to potential home-buyers, it would have been possible for all the same buyers to live in all the same houses WITHOUT the current troubles, created almost entirely by a totally AVOIDABLE PRICE INFLATION.
(correction/ T-Y, Mr. Williams!)
B. Katz, Toronto, Canada
Any corrective legislation must be grandfathered so that those responsible will be held accountable.............
Winslow, Toronto, Canada
All that is needed is to abolish cridit cards.
m wilson, bidache, france
This money belongs to the taxpayer.Their representatives have only about 6 weeks in power,after which the monies will technically belong to nobody and should be returned unless the new lot vote to spend it on the bail out rather than public services which they were voted in to support.
james allen, manchester, england
The Banks lent unwisely and bundled toxic loans with good to create false collateral. Had the Bank of England and its counterparts acted as lender of last resort as in 1974 the public and the media would be none the wiser now, with the better banks surviving and the rest brought to justice and jail.
john bentley, loule, Portugal
Quick, Panic!!!!
Don't stop and think, just throw $700,000,000,000 at the problem. Isn't that what everyone wants to do because two people say so? Oh yeah, and the people who would get the money say so too. I for one am amazed that congress showed some restraint for a change.
Jim, Boston,
The situation in the US has had one effect in the UK, the government doesn't look quite as incompetent as it once did.
david, exeter, UK
For the future: it must be made a criminal offence for high street bank directors to knowingly or recklessly risk depositors' funds. Despite the possibility of litigation as to what was reckless, the mere existence of this law would deter bankers from doing things they did not understand
Roger Derek Williams, Port de Pollenca, Spain
From the dawn of financial services and stock markets periods of turmoil have happened. Think Italian banks, South Sea Bubble, railway stocks, the 1929 crash. Banks and stock markets have recovered. It takes years but the kick in the pants given by this vote will make the denizens do it themselves
Markham, Huddersfield, UK
Mr Katz is completely right (except think he means "avoidable").
Mr Brown bears the responsibility for letting house prices race out of reach of what he now calls "ordinary hard-working families".
Roger Derek Williams, Port de Pollenca, Spain
Instead of doling out taxpayers cash to bankers who are short because mortgagees have defaulted, why not hand over money on behalf of mortgagees to pay off those mortgages? Taxpayers money goes to taxpayers, the taxpayers get their houses, the bankers debts reduce & the liquidity ratios improve.
chris lee, Melbourne, UK
Er.. Actually not much is happening really.. footise up...
Is this just another corporate con as has been suggested on this blog before?
Graham, Littlehampton,
The "American era" is over. U.S. political and economic leaders at every level sadly displayed the lack of leadership necessary to resolve the greatest worldwide economic crisis since the great depression to score a few cheap political points. An old order passes. A new order will be born
Martin Gray, Miami, USA
sell banks.
buy soup-kitchens.
there is £300 trillion staked on LIBOR-related instruments alone.
$700 billion is too little to late.
nigel foster, ryde, uk
If the bailout goes ahead, no lessons will be learnt and in 6 months time, we could very well be back with the same problems. Bankers around the world will continue on their merry way, knowing full well that if they stuff up, the govt will be there to pickup the pieces.
Grant Hutton, Locarno, Switzerland
There are all sorts of sophisticated, and not so sophisticated, arguments for and against any actions, but the plain fact is that we cannot continue to live on debt.
David, Cambridge, UK
This problem was initiated by Mr Greenespan with his half of one percent interest rate for several years causing very high property inflation,fuelled by Banks reckless lending....the combination leading us to where we now find ourselves.
Thank you America. You certaily do lead the World!
Pedro, London, UK
Has any one got any good investment tips. Let me know
Shaffiq Mahmood, Halifax, UK
so what let them all fail then, the whole system is rotten anyway. If they are rescued they will only do it all over again once they recover from the nasty fright they have been given. If this is the end of capitalism bring it on. Why should the robbed pay the robbers.
colin houlding, Bury, UK
The US is clearly behaving like an emerging economy. The IMF and World Bank should take over the levers from Messrs Bush and Co. It has been done with some success in the past with Turkey, Brazil, Pakistan etc.
Kara Swart, London, UK
Paul Owen - Sadly, this will not blow over. We're in the midst of the most significant market correction in history. Wall Street and Main Street are drowning in debt, thanks largely to Greenspan's artificial interest rates. This is a natural de-leveraging process, which is only really just beginning
Stewart, London,
We are where we are, so foreclose on failing mortgages, make mortgagees freeholders, they get rents on the properties,use this to pay loan costs, no-one on the street, cut overheads in the banking institutions so that costs will be less than incomes and take time to solve the problems.
michael, Woking, UK
Where is the IMF in all this? isn't this exactly the kind of situation that it was invented for?
ALL western governments should admit defeat on this and allow bailout funds to be chanelled through the mechanisms of the IMF so that restructuring of the system is suprapolitico- national?
Dominic O'Dell, London, UK
IF the banks had refused to loan unreasonable amounts of money to potential home-buyers, it would have been possible for all the same buyers to live in all the same houses WITHOUT the current troubles, caused by totally unavoidable price inflation.
b katz, toronto, canada
Paulson's mistake was this badly drawn up plan. His previous multiple attempts to prop up markets also failed. A plan aimed at Main Street would have passed. Why should shareholders and bond holders of badly capitalised institutions be left with anything in the event of failure/nationalisation?
John Dimsy, Harrow, United Kingdom
As usual the Jeremiah media is talking itself and the rest of us into a crisis. This will blow over if you let it. There is no sense to it and no need for this rescue plan. Tell Wall Street to sink or swim and they will swim. Give them easy money and what do you think they will do? Just shut up!
Paul Owen, Birmingham, UK
Fannie & Freddy had thier lending standards lowered to let lower income earners afford a home ( in error).
What is needed is transparency between lenders.
Dale Freund, Woodstock, IL, USA
IF the Bail out plan passes you can kiss away any type of education for the future generation of this country. We need the children of this country to have the proper education, and if you make the american tax payers pay that Bail out for thr rich then you are stealing it from the children of U.S.
Michelle Koltun, Chicago, U.S.
Ahem,before the whitewash get too thick and it is all those left-wing Democrats fault, from the NYT: "133 Republicans turning against President Bush to join 95 Democrats in opposition."
Certainly Wachovia is gone, next Citi? Maybe only Goldmans, Morgan Chase and BofA will be standing at the end.
dhome, sydney, australia
"The Republicans voted against the Bill in sufficiently large numbers to prompt many Democrats to step back"
- today's Times editorial.
"by bowing to party-political demands for a Republican say in the package, Mr Paulson opened himself to last nights sabotage"
- above.
How can both be right?
Cyril Berkeley, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Did anyone notice that Obama was at the same meeting that John McCain was at to discuss the bailout? AND Obama was holding a press conference outside the building.....who was trying to make a political act out of it and grandstanding??
Sally, punta gorda, USA
I am in the US on business trip ( an Englishman). Watching debate on US television, I am struck by just how angry a large number of people are, including many academics, at bailing out a massive failure by Wall Street individuals, who profited. Little discussion of global impact ! This will run.
Stephen Pettit, Wheathampstead, St. Albans