AMERICA faces a bill running into many billions of dollars even before the first missile strike against Iraq as it tries to coax, pressure and, if necessary, buy allied support.
Washington’s unseemly cash-for-access wrangle with Turkey may involve big money, but it reflects only a small strand in a web of deals that the Bush Administration is trying to weave with potential allies in the Gulf, on the United Nations Security Council and in “new” Europe.
Yesterday Turkey was still waiting for the US to increase an offer of a $26 billion (£17 billion) aid package to more than $30 billion. The Turkish Government has it in its power to undermine America’s whole battle strategy for an invasion of Iraq.
For Operation Desert Storm II, General Tommy Franks, the US commander of the 200,000-strong coalition invasion force, needs access to at least three Turkish military bases for an attack on Iraq.
Such an attack launched from Turkey and involving 20,000 troops from the US 4th Infantry Division, may force President Saddam Hussein to divert his special units north if he wanted to try to prevent Iraqi territory from falling into American hands.
Colin Powell, the US Secretary of State, said there was no more money to add to the “take it or leave it” deal, although he said there may be some “creative things” that could be done with the finer details.
There is good reason to hold firm, despite the havoc a Turkish refusal would wreak on the Pentagon’s war plans. Buckling to Ankara’s pressure now would embolden others to increase their demands in what US officials say has already become “a bazaar”.
Ankara has found itself in the role that Pakistan played in the Afghanistan war — the ally that the US cannot do without — despite Washington’s public insistence that it could defeat Baghdad without the help of Nato’s only Muslim nation.
In 2001, Pakistan was rewarded with a $1 billion debt write-off, $100 million in immediate aid and the lifting of sanctions imposed when it tested its nuclear bomb. In return, it agreed to blanket demands for US military access. As a member of the Security Council, it can expect more help if it eventually supports a war.
America’s other key ally in the Middle East, Israel, is discussing a record $12 billion request for US assistance on top of the nearly $3 billion in direct aid that it receives every year. About $8 billion of the request is for loan guarantees, prompted by Israel’s worst economic crisis in 50 years.
Ariel Sharon, the Israeli Prime Minister, is under American pressure to repeat Israel’s restraint of the 1991 Gulf War by not responding to any Iraqi missile attacks during a war, an undertaking he has refused to give. The final size of a US aid package could depend on the conduct of a war, and could also be shaped by any push for a Middle East peace deal after war. The US is providing Patriot missiles to shield against attack from Iraq’s Scud missiles.
Jordan and Egypt, two other key American allies, have also requested huge aid packages. Jordan is asking for $1 billion in direct assistance, and Egypt wants a big increase in the $1.3 billion it received last year.
Other costs include possible compensation for Russia, which has $8 billion worth of unpaid debts in Baghdad, as well as billions of dollars in promised oil contracts.
Among the swing votes on the Security Council, Mexico could hope to win an immigration deal for Mexicans living illegally in the United States, which Washington has long promised.
The three African countries, Angola, Cameroon and Guinea, can also expect attention and the prospects of aid above the $10 billion in new Aids money that President Bush is trying to push through Congress. Any focus by Washington on the African continent is welcome because African interests are frequently relegated to the third division of US foreign policy interests. East European countries, the vanguard of the “new Europe” countries that have rallied to Washington’s side, are also hoping for big diplomatic paybacks and a better chance of winning US military contracts.
The cost to Washington of war with Iraq is far higher this time than in 1991, and at a time when the sluggish US economy is on shaky ground. The US yesterday reported a record $435.2 billion trade deficit for last year, the largest imbalance in history, while inflation rose by 1.6 per cent in January, the biggest monthly increase in 13 years.
In 1991, faced with Saddam’s invasion of Kuwait, allies did not need financial inducements to back a war. The final bill of $60 billion was paid largely by Japan, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.
Rewards for backing Bush
- Russia
Gives: Support in UN Security Council vote
Gets: Guarantees on $10-$12bn of Iraqi debt and possible oil contracts
- Hungary
Gives: Facilities for training the Iraqi opposition
Gets: Enhanced international status and financial support
- Bulgaria
Gives: Vote on UN Security Council
Gets: US support for entry to EU and increased military co-operation within Nato
- Chile
Gives: Vote on UN Security Council
Gets: Strengthened position in talks on US trade tariffs
- Jordan
Gives: Access for US air defence, radar and special forces Gets: $1bn in direct aid and military assistance
- Egypt
Gives: Arab support to campaign
Gets: $1bn and promise of increased US support for Middle East peace process
- Israel
Gives: Behind-the-scenes assurances they will not retaliate Gets: $12bn in direct aid and loan guarantees. US promises of defence
- Mexico
Gives: Vote on UN Security Council
Gets: Improved immigration regulations
- Angola
Gives: Vote on UN Security Council
Gets: Future co-operation with US companies in developing offshore oilfields
- Guinea, Cameroon
Give: Votes on UN Security Council
Get: Development aid and increased international status
- Turkey
Gives: Key military facilities for US invasion from the north and a regional ally
Gets: At least $26bn in direct aid and loans
